Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if, between the creation of this market and June 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET, the United States government (via official announcement from the President, Department of Defense, or the U.S. Navy) officially reinstates, re-imposes, or implements a new naval blockade (either against Iran/the Strait of Hormuz or any other nation).

The market will resolve to NO if no such blockade is officially announced or initiated by the U.S. before July 1, 2026.

Credible major media outlets (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press, Bloomberg) or official government statements (e.g., defense.gov, whitehouse.gov) will serve as the primary sources of truth. Temporary delays in the lifting of the previous blockade do not count as a "reintroduction" unless the blockade is explicitly declared lifted and is subsequently re-imposed.

Background

On April 13, 2026, the United States initiated a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz targeting shipping to and from Iran amid the 2026 Iran War.

On June 14, 2026, U.S. President Donald Trump announced that a tentative agreement to end the war had been finalized. In his announcement, he authorized the "immediate removal of the United States Naval blockade". The formal signing of the memorandum of understanding (MOU) between the U.S. and Iran is scheduled to take place on Friday, June 19, 2026, in Geneva, Switzerland. This market tracks whether geopolitical frictions or complications with the peace agreement will prompt the U.S. to re-impose a naval blockade before the end of June.

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