The United Kingdom local elections are approaching on the 2nd of May 2024. 107 local councils (not including the London Assembly) have elections. How many will have no overall control after the elections?
I'm including localist parties/residents associations, and independents as NOC, even if the council is formed of a majority of these councillors.
By my calculations there are 38 councils with no overall control at present. Because some councils are elected in thirds, there's at least one council that's guaranteed to be NOC after the election. Conversely, it's only possible for 88 councils to be NOC, even if there was a landslide against the current majority party.
This will resolve after all the election results are published and tabulated to the number of councils without a party majority.
My calculations may not be 100% accurate, as I have not accounted for byelections or defections. If there is a landslide and the actual result is outside of the range specified, I'll resolve to the boundary.
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@traders The final results have come in. There are 37 councils with No Overall Control (one fewer than at the last elections) however Castle Point council is now controlled by a localist party, which counts as an additional one for this market. The total is therefore 38 councils - no change on the previous elections, and this resolves to 36-45.
https://www.bbc.com/news/election/2024/england/results#council-scoreboard