Algorithmovigilance's calibration
Grade: B-, Score: -3.95
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Algorithmovigilance bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
5%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
- 8. Will a nuclear weapon be detonated (including tests and accidents) in 2023?NOṀ750
- Will the FDA recall any 510k cleared medical device for adverse events caused by defective AI software by the end of 2023?NOṀ35
- Will John Bolton announce he is seeking the GOP nomination for president in 2024 by the end of May?NOṀ10
60%
70%
80%
- Will Trump be charged by the DoJ by the end of 2023 for crimes related to removing documents from the White House to his home Mar-a-Lago?YESṀ1,000
- Will Trump be charged by the DoJ by the end of 2023 for crimes related to removing documents from the White House to his home Mar-a-Lago?YESṀ1,000
- 23. Will Donald Trump get indicted on criminal charges in 2023?YESṀ1,000
90%
95%