Can you make Mana profits simply by buying YES on every market every day?
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resolved May 12
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I will not actually test this so resolution will just be based on my judgement
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I never reached a determination sorry
You need some edge over the trading fees to profit
@Austin No I'm mostly just asking if "monkey dartboard" strat makes money, except I just picked "always YES" instead of "50/50"
By "push the odds in your favour" I mean your favour in terms of profit calculation, rather than changing the odds in reality.
Yes you can. When you define profit as per "Total Profit" on https://manifold.markets/portfolio or https://manifold.markets/leaderboards. If you bet on either direction on a CFMM market (and most of them are) you push the odds in your favour, and the profit calculation assumes the new probability is correct. The thing is most markets are lightly traded, and most markets have long resolution dates. So with the ill specified "Can you make Mana profits" the answer is YES in the short term (say you did this for a month) you will.
Are you saying that markets are systematically favored towards "NO"? I don't really think that's the case, if anything I would have assumed the opposite (that there's too much positive wishful thinking, and buying NO on all markets would be slightly +EV)
hmmm infinite money hack?
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