Can you make Mana profits simply by buying YES on every market every day?
Resolved
N/A
May 12
M$166 bet
I will not actually test this so resolution will just be based on my judgement
agrippa

agrippa 14 days ago

I never reached a determination sorry
Sinclair

Sinclair Chen bought M$40 of NO21 days ago

You need some edge over the trading fees to profit
agrippa

agrippa 21 days ago

@Austin No I'm mostly just asking if "monkey dartboard" strat makes money, except I just picked "always YES" instead of "50/50"
Undox

Undox 21 days ago

By "push the odds in your favour" I mean your favour in terms of profit calculation, rather than changing the odds in reality.
Undox

Undox 21 days ago

Yes you can. When you define profit as per "Total Profit" on https://manifold.markets/portfolio or https://manifold.markets/leaderboards. If you bet on either direction on a CFMM market (and most of them are) you push the odds in your favour, and the profit calculation assumes the new probability is correct. The thing is most markets are lightly traded, and most markets have long resolution dates. So with the ill specified "Can you make Mana profits" the answer is YES in the short term (say you did this for a month) you will.
Austin

Austin bought M$10 of NO21 days ago

Are you saying that markets are systematically favored towards "NO"? I don't really think that's the case, if anything I would have assumed the opposite (that there's too much positive wishful thinking, and buying NO on all markets would be slightly +EV)
ManifoldMarkets

Manifold Markets bought M$50 of YES21 days ago

hmmm infinite money hack?