Will I move more than once before October 30?
41%
chance
Oct 30
M$151 bet
I am currently subletting, and my sublet ends at the end of May. I am looking for ideally a chill group house to join, ideally rationalist/EA-ish-aligned, ideally in SF. One option might be the place opening under @Austin: https://manifold.markets/agentydragon/will-i-join-the-group-house-under-a It is possible I might also not end up joining that place. I might end up joining another group house, bridging a gap in housing with an Airbnb, renting a place on my own, etc etc. I don't like moving and would like an idea of how likely will I be moving again soon. This market resolves to YES if I live at a different apartment/house/whatever at market close from the place I live on June 10, 2022. Close date updated to 2022-10-30 12:00 pm
agentydragon

Rai bought M$20 of NO5 days ago

down-update because more options
agentydragon

Rai bought M$10 of NO10 days ago

slight down-update since more confident group house will work out and will have a good time there