Will I move more than once before October 30?
13
6
185
resolved Oct 30
Resolved
NO
I am currently subletting, and my sublet ends at the end of May. I am looking for ideally a chill group house to join, ideally rationalist/EA-ish-aligned, ideally in SF. One option might be the place opening under @Austin: https://manifold.markets/agentydragon/will-i-join-the-group-house-under-a It is possible I might also not end up joining that place. I might end up joining another group house, bridging a gap in housing with an Airbnb, renting a place on my own, etc etc. I don't like moving and would like an idea of how likely will I be moving again soon. This market resolves to YES if I live at a different apartment/house/whatever at market close from the place I live on June 10, 2022. Close date updated to 2022-10-30 12:00 pm
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predicted NO

Very unlikely by now, not planning it

predicted NO
down-update, been at same place for ~2 months now
bought Ṁ20 of NO
down-update because more options
bought Ṁ10 of NO
slight down-update since more confident group house will work out and will have a good time there