Will at least 10 of my markets get at least 10 bids of at least 10 M$?
resolved May 25
Resolves to YES if by time of close there are at least 10 markets that I created that have at least 10 bids of at least 10 M$ from users who are not me. Those markets do not have to be still open at time of close - markets that close before that point still count, if they have >=10 bids of >=10 M$. May 20, 8:38am: note: it must be at least 10 bids of at least 10 M$ EACH (i.e. at least 100 M$ in volume), not at least 10 M$ total over all bids
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predicted NO
and seems like the incentive might have somewhat worked? :) saw a lot of exactly M$10 bets, so presumably I got exactly what I asked the market for. so perhaps some evidence this form of incentive might work, if I tweaked it a bit more to be less hackable. (e.g.: "it has to be from 10 different accounts", if the bets are going public at some point) >10 bids of >10 M$: https://manifold.markets/agentydragon/how-much-will-i-weigh-on-june-25-in https://manifold.markets/agentydragon/my-laptop-battery-is-still-flaky-in https://manifold.markets/agentydragon/nuclear-attack-in-2022 https://manifold.markets/agentydragon/what-will-be-my-10-m-impact-factor https://manifold.markets/agentydragon/will-at-least-10-of-my-markets-get https://manifold.markets/agentydragon/will-i-move-more-than-once-before-o https://manifold.markets/agentydragon/will-i-remain-under-125-kg-in-2022 https://manifold.markets/agentydragon/will-i-take-a-dose-of-saxenda-on-th-2bd360445406 https://manifold.markets/agentydragon/will-i-take-a-ride-in-a-selfdriving https://manifold.markets/agentydragon/will-i-take-my-usual-dose-of-fluoxe https://manifold.markets/agentydragon/will-my-weight-go-under-110-kg-in-2 https://manifold.markets/agentydragon/will-rai-have-a-boygirlfriend-at-an did not pass: https://manifold.markets/agentydragon/will-mathjax-implement-automatic-li https://manifold.markets/agentydragon/will-rai-michael-pokorny-be-a-fullt https://manifold.markets/agentydragon/will-i-join-the-group-house-under-a https://manifold.markets/agentydragon/will-i-get-covid-a-second-time-in-2 https://manifold.markets/agentydragon/will-my-weight-go-under-115-kg-in-2 https://manifold.markets/agentydragon/where-will-i-live-in-a-month https://manifold.markets/agentydragon/will-i-take-a-dose-of-saxenda-on-th https://manifold.markets/agentydragon/will-i-still-be-on-the-contract-for https://manifold.markets/agentydragon/will-i-grok-variational-autoencoder https://manifold.markets/agentydragon/will-i-have-a-primary-care-practiti https://manifold.markets/agentydragon/i-will-resolve-this-market-to-the-o https://manifold.markets/agentydragon/we-will-successfully-rent-the-place https://manifold.markets/agentydragon/will-i-exceed-my-daily-calorie-inta
predicted YES
@agentydragon For the records, I did look at your markets and bet on them after seeing and betting on this one
sold Ṁ194 of YES
I lost $6 undoing the bet by selling, but at least I didnt lose $200 :D
bought Ṁ200 of YES
oh no i misread it as just at least $10 total :D
predicted NO
Ah - right, h-index is the word I was looking for, not Impact factor...
bought Ṁ30 of YES
I guess that would mean that your M-index is >10 :) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/H-index