# Rai's calibration

Grade: C+, Score: -4.44

Resolution probability

Probability after bet

**Interpretation**

- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Rai bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).

YES bets

NO bets

3 largest bets for each bucket

10%

20%

- Will there be any agreement to slow down AI development, between OpenAI/Microsoft, Google and Anthropic before 2024?NOṀ25
- Will shenanigans ensue if Manifold switches from append-only descriptions to edit history available?NOṀ20
- Will John Carmack seriously engage with the alignment community by the end of 2023?NOṀ15

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

95%

97%