Rai's calibration
Grade: C+, Score: -4.45
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Rai bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
10%
20%
- Will there be any agreement to slow down AI development, between OpenAI/Microsoft, Google and Anthropic before 2024?NOṀ25
- Will shenanigans ensue if Manifold switches from append-only descriptions to edit history available?NOṀ20
- Will John Carmack seriously engage with the alignment community by the end of 2023?NOṀ15
30%
40%
- Will Nick Bostrom be removed or step down from his position as director of the Future of Humanity Institute? (within the end of 2023)NOṀ20
- Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?NOṀ10
- Will Manifold employ or consult with a professional mathematician or economist before July 1, 2024?NOṀ10
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
95%
97%