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MANIFOLD
When will a company claim credit for Ox Alpha?
3
Ṁ175Ṁ232
2027
September 20, 2026
10%
Before Aug 22, 2026
24%
Before Aug 24, 2026
50%
Before Aug 27, 2026
66%
Before Aug 30, 2026
83%
Before Sep 7, 2026
90%
Before Sept 20, 2026
90%
Before 2027

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to the date on which a company officially claims ownership, development, or creation of the "Ox Alpha" AI model (originally listed on OpenRouter under the identifier stealth/ox-alpha on August 20, 2026).

  • Definition of "Official Claim": The claim must come through an official communication channel of a recognized AI laboratory or technology company (e.g., Zhipu AI, Xiaomi, Tencent, Alibaba, or others). This includes official blog posts, press releases, posts from verified corporate social media accounts (such as X/Twitter), or official changes to the model's documentation on OpenRouter that identify the creator.

  • Resolution Date: The market will resolve based on the Coordinated Universal Time (UTC) date of the first valid official announcement.

  • Exclusions: Unofficial leaks, community speculation, or independent technical fingerprinting (e.g., tokenizer or video-encoder comparisons) do not count as an official claim.

  • No Claim: If no company officially claims credit for the model before the market's designated close date, the market should resolve to the close date or N/A, subject to the creator's final discretion.

Background

On August 20, 2026, an anonymous "stealth" model named "Ox Alpha" was released on OpenRouter. Positioned as a reasoning model optimized for long-horizon coding and agentic workflows, it features a 1,048,576-token context window and support for text, image, and video inputs.

Early technical fingerprinting by independent researchers suggests the model might be a variant of Zhipu AI’s GLM-5.3, while other community theories suggest links to Xiaomi's MiMo series or other major hyperscalers. Releasing anonymous models on OpenRouter for temporary free testing before officially claiming them has previously been used as a rollout strategy by several Chinese AI labs.

Market context
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