Resolution Criteria

This market resolves YES if Chancellor Friedrich Merz makes a public announcement by December 31, 2026 that Germany will increase defense spending to 3.0% of GDP. The announcement must be made by Merz himself (or an official statement from the German Chancellor's office) and must explicitly state a commitment to reach 3.0% of GDP in defense spending. Resolution sources include official German government statements, NATO announcements, or major international news outlets reporting on such an announcement.

Background

Germany's record €108.2 billion 2026 defense budget marks a historic shift, supporting a long-term Bundeswehr buildup and redefining Germany's role in European security and NATO. Germany only just met NATO's 2% GDP target in 2024, so this jump to ~2.8% by 2026 is unprecedented. Merz has pledged Germany will meet NATO's new benchmark of 3.5% of GDP on defence by 2029, far above the Alliance's long-standing 2% guideline and well ahead of most member states' plans. Merz decided right at the start of his tenure to increase Germany's defence spending up to 5% of GDP.

Considerations

Although the target of spending 3.5% of GDP by 2029 remains unlikely, Germany's defence spending trajectory has shifted decisively upward, with the 2026 budget marking another major step in Berlin's rearmament efforts. The question asks specifically about a 3.0% announcement by end of 2026, which falls between Germany's current trajectory (~2.8% in 2026) and its stated 3.5% target by 2029. Merz has already made ambitious public commitments to defense spending increases, but whether he will specifically announce a 3.0% target for 2026 or beyond remains uncertain.

This description was generated by AI.