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 There are a lot of questions on Manifold about whether or not we'll see sentience, general A.I., ... I would like to dial these conversations into more of an engineering approach.

Here are some markets I have created recently which use a third party parameter from a leaderboard challenge to answer various A.I. questions:

This and other important markets (and subsidized) in the programming automation tag! Make thoughtful bets!

A satirical business networking social media site for making connections only with the people you enjoy circlejerking amongst. Features posts, breaking news headlines, and award-winning journalism.

Since you're viewing this from an ad, I'll give you an advantage in trading. I think there's a 75% chance I do subscribe this weekend. My main intended use is as an improved "lit review" tool, to learn about the state of academic literature in fields that are not my own---what questions are considered important, who might be good to talk to, that sort of thing. (I don't need super up-to-date responses, so I'm not worried about the fact that it's trained on slightly old info.) But, I'm happy to try it out in other ways if you think there's something useful!

(Note: I tried using ChatGPT for coding, and I find that 

, it's not remotely useful. So don't bet YES because you think it'll help me with coding tasks.)

Join the hippest most happening forecasting site on the web:

None of this betting guff, just put your predictions in and get paid in brier score. Forecasting so good you'll never look back.

Add Manifold's Discord Bot to your Discord server!

The Manifold Markets Discord Bot allows you to trade, search, and create prediction markets right from your discord server. It supports trading via Zoomer-friendly emoji reactions! This is how it looks:

 and choose your server from the list. You'll need to have the "Manage Server" permission to add the bot.

A few markets id really appreciate some more traders on :) 

Beeminder is the me-binder. Reminders with a sting. Hyperrational goal tracking. Safety rope for slippery slopes. Automated accountability.

You know how sometimes people make Manifold markets about whether they'll finish some onerous task and bet YES to incentivize themself to actually do it? Beeminder is that but for ongoing, graphable goals.

It's not for the faint of heart, but very powerful for a certain psychology. Also you must be into bee puns.

Another looping song from my pack. The whole thing will be out soon for your videos, games, or whatever you'd like :)