Acceleration's calibration
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Acceleration bet YES at x%, the market resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
10 largest bets for each bucket
1%
- Will we have a Speaker of the House by Friday?NOṀ100
- Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the Super Bowl?NOṀ100
- February 2023: Will this market have less than 30 unique traders?NOṀ100
- Im gonna resolve this randomly (DAILY)NOṀ100
- Will we have a Messi vs Ronaldo final?NOṀ100
- Will Brazil win the FIFA World Cup 2022?NOṀ100
- Will Pxie or Erin (Straighterade) get thrown out of the Fresh & Fit studio?NOṀ100
- Will Roger Federer win another Grand Slam event before retirement?NOṀ65
- Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the Super Bowl?NOṀ52
- How will Isaac King's 69% market resolve? (see market in description)NOṀ50
3%
- Will the GOP control the US Senate in 2023?NOṀ150
- Will Blake Masters win the Arizona Senate seat?NOṀ142
- Will Democrats maintain control of the House in the 2022 midterms?NOṀ108
- Will Destiny go live by 2pm on Feb 1st?NOṀ100
- Will any national team captain wear a rainbow LGBT armband during the game at Qatar World Cup 2022?NOṀ92
- Will Jebas win the tournament?NOṀ91
- Will the Destiny–MrGirl bridge stand on Jan 31, 2023?NOṀ75
- Will Destiny change his position on the Kai Cenat situation?NOṀ73
- Will Destiny debate mizkids on the Adrianah drama?NOṀ69
- Will Xi Jinping be Time Person of the Year?NOṀ67
5%
- Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in 2022? (tests included)NOṀ100
- Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in 2022? (tests included)NOṀ100
- Will Anton and Zella (me!) still be life partners in 10 years?NOṀ100
- Will Destiny Talk to Marquett Burton (The Saint and The Sinner) Again In November?NOṀ100
- Will the Ukrainian army pull out of Bakhmut in March?NOṀ100
- Will Destiny have another 15k stream by the end of 2022?NOṀ100
- Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?YESṀ100
- Will Destiny hit a 930+ on Got Rythm on stream by December 31, 2022?NOṀ100
- Will xQc beat Forsen's Minecraft record before 2023?NOṀ100
- Will a Republican win the 2022 Arizona governor's race?NOṀ100
10%
- Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?NOṀ150
- Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?YESṀ150
- Will KlekTheCluck win the tournament?NOṀ132
- Will North Korea conduct more than one nuclear test before December 1, 2022?NOṀ107
- Will Kalshi receive regulatory approval for any election markets before the end of 2022?NOṀ104
- Will HappinessLTD win the tournament?NOṀ100
- Will Forsen beat Xqc's minecraft record before the end of January?NOṀ100
- Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?NOṀ100
- Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?NOṀ100
- Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in 2022? (tests included)NOṀ100
20%
- Will a nuclear weapon be detonated before the midterms?NOṀ171
- Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in 2022? (tests included)NOṀ150
- Democrats vs Republicans (1 day only)YESṀ150
- Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?NOṀ146
- Donald Trump's return on Twitter: Will @realDonaldTrump tweet in 2022?NOṀ106
- Will Destiny be violently killed in the first week of 2023?YESṀ100
- Will Destiny have a 20k viewer stream in Q1 2023YESṀ100
- Will Ukraine be promised or provided ATACMS by Jan 31, 2023?NOṀ100
- Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?NOṀ100
- Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?NOṀ100
30%
- Donald Trump's return on Twitter: Will @realDonaldTrump tweet in 2022?NOṀ200
- Will Biden be president on October 6, 2022? [Self-Resolving]NOṀ150
- Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in 2022? (tests included)NOṀ150
- Donald Trump's return on Twitter: Will @realDonaldTrump tweet in 2022?NOṀ150
- Will North Korea conduct a nuclear weapons test in 2022?NOṀ133
- Will Democrats maintain control of the Senate in the 2022 midterms?YESṀ130
- Will North Korea conduct a nuclear weapons test before the end of October?NOṀ118
- Will the GOP control the US Senate in 2023?NOṀ117
- Will Argentina and Morocco reach the final?NOṀ100
- Will the responder one-box in this Transparent Newcomb's Paradox?YESṀ100
40%
- Will a nuclear weapon be detonated before the midterms?NOṀ250
- Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in 2022? (tests included)NOṀ243
- Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in 2022? (tests included)NOṀ189
- Will Dr. Oz be elected to the US Senate (PA) in 2022?NOṀ154
- Will Biden be president on October 6, 2022? [Self-Resolving]NOṀ150
- Will Dr. Oz be elected to the US Senate (PA) in 2022?NOṀ150
- Will Democrats maintain control of the Senate in the 2022 midterms?YESṀ150
- Will T1 win Worlds?NOṀ150
- Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?NOṀ150
- Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?NOṀ150
50%
- Will Ukraine recapture the city of Kherson by the end of 2022?YESṀ227
- Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in 2022? (tests included)NOṀ201
- Will Dr. Oz be elected to the US Senate (PA) in 2022?NOṀ200
- Will Destiny be on Lex Fridman's Podcast before January 1st, 2023?YESṀ200
- Will North Korea conduct a nuclear weapons test in 2022?NOṀ154
- Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?NOṀ150
- Positive EV bet (1 Day)NOṀ150
- Is there always a bigger whale?NOṀ150
- Will Ukraine recapture the city of Kherson by the end of 2022?YESṀ134
- Donald Trump's return on Twitter: Will @realDonaldTrump tweet in 2022?NOṀ132
60%
- Will Biden be president on October 6, 2022? [Self-Resolving]NOṀ200
- Aba Stock (1 week)YESṀ152
- Will Democrats maintain control of the Senate in the 2022 midterms?YESṀ150
- Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?NOṀ150
- Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?NOṀ150
- Will Democrats lose their majorities in the House and Senate in 2022?NOṀ150
- Will France win against Tunisia at the 2022 FIFA World Cup?NOṀ150
- Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?NOṀ150
- Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?NOṀ150
- Democrats lose both houses of Congress in 2022NOṀ150
70%
- Will Dan win the BOTY (Buddy Of the Year) award this year again?NOṀ150
- Will Dan win the BOTY (Buddy Of the Year) award this year again?NOṀ150
- Will Belgium win against Canada at the 2022 FIFA World Cup?YESṀ150
- Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?NOṀ150
- Will a previous winner of the World Cup win the 2022 FIFA World Cup?YESṀ150
- Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?NOṀ150
- Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?NOṀ150
- Will the Democrats control the Senate after the Midterms?YESṀ150
- Will the GOP control the US Senate in 2023?NOṀ150
- Will the GOP control the US Senate in 2023?NOṀ150
80%
- Aba Stock (1 week)YESṀ200
- Will Mike Lee win the 2022 Utah Senate election?YESṀ150
- Will Democrats maintain control of the Senate in the 2022 midterms?YESṀ150
- Will Democrats maintain control of the Senate in the 2022 midterms?YESṀ150
- Will Democrats maintain control of the Senate in the 2022 midterms?YESṀ150
- Will Democrats maintain control of the Senate in the 2022 midterms?YESṀ150
- Will Democrats maintain control of the Senate in the 2022 midterms?YESṀ150
- Will Democrats maintain control of the Senate in the 2022 midterms?YESṀ150
- Will Sam Bankman-Fried still be speaking at the New York Times / Accenture sponsored DealBook Summit on November 30th at Lincoln Center?YESṀ150
- Will Sam Bankman-Fried still be speaking at the New York Times / Accenture sponsored DealBook Summit on November 30th at Lincoln Center?YESṀ150
90%
- Will Murkowski win the 2022 Alaskan Senate Race?YESṀ250
- Will Ukraine recapture the city of Kherson by the end of 2022?YESṀ200
- Will SBF be criminally charged connected to his actions at FTX by end of 2023?YESṀ150
- Will Destiny's side channel "Last Night On Destiny" have more monthly views than Vaush's main channel at the end of the November?YESṀ150
- Will USA make it out of the group stage in the 2022 World Cup?YESṀ150
- Will Argentina make it out of the group stage in the 2022 World Cup?YESṀ150
- Will Destiny stream again before 9pm EST?YESṀ150
- Will Destiny stream again before 9pm EST?YESṀ150
- Will Alameda Research declare bankruptcy before the end of 2022?YESṀ150
- Will Belgium win against Canada at the 2022 FIFA World Cup?YESṀ150
95%
- Will FTX suspend withdrawals for more than a 7 day period in 2022?YESṀ200
- Will the linked Lavlunee stock market resolve correctly?YESṀ200
- Will a Korean team win League of Legends Worlds 2022?YESṀ175
- Will Switzerland make it out of the group stage in the 2022 World Cup?YESṀ150
- Will SBF live till the end of the year?YESṀ150
- Will SBF live till the end of the year?YESṀ150
- Will over 250 US Starbucks locations be unionized by the end of 2022?YESṀ150
- EMOTE BATTLE | OOOO (YES) VS MMMM (NO ) | (1 DAY)NOṀ150
- EMOTE BATTLE | OOOO (YES) VS MMMM (NO ) | (1 DAY)NOṀ150
- Will Josh Shapiro win the 2022 Pennsylvania governor's race?YESṀ150
97%
- Will Tina Kotek (D) be elected governor of Oregon in the 2022 election?YESṀ200
- Will MrGirl be unbanned from destiny subreddit before Jan 31 2023?YESṀ175
- Will Uruguay win against Ghana at the 2022 FIFA World Cup?YESṀ150
- Will Uruguay win against Ghana at the 2022 FIFA World Cup?YESṀ150
- Will Netherlands make it out of the group stage in the 2022 World Cup?YESṀ150
- Will the most recent video uploaded to Destiny's Youtube Channel surpass 250k views within 48 hours?YESṀ150
- Will Blake Masters concede the AZ Senate race by the end of November?YESṀ150
- Will Josh Shapiro win the 2022 Pennsylvania governor's race?YESṀ150
- Will Vienna Teng perform in the San Francisco Bay Area in 2022 or January 2023?YESṀ150
- Will @PradyuPrasad have 5000+ followers by the end of 2022?YESṀ150
99%
- Will I reach 1000 Twitter followers by 1 Jan 2023?YESṀ150
- Will over $200 be donated today? (it's Giving Tuesday today!)YESṀ150
- Will the market about the Earth revolving around the Sun resolve properly?YESṀ150
- Will consensus reporting be that Nord Stream was deliberately attacked on 9/26, by the end of the year?YESṀ150
- Will over 250 US Starbucks locations be unionized by the end of 2022?YESṀ150
- Will Destiny canvass in the Georgia runoff election 2022YESṀ150
- Will Vienna Teng perform in the San Francisco Bay Area in 2022 or January 2023?YESṀ150
- Will any manifold markets contain the word “pumpkin” by 06/11/22. (Read description for terms)YESṀ150
- Will Bitcoin price be above $16500 at Nov 25 6pm ET?YESṀ150
- Will Kanye West be unbanned on Twitter before Destiny gets unbanned?NOṀ150