Will any NATO nation (including France) send troops to Ukraine in 2024?
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2026
20%
chance

Source:

https://www.ajc.com/news/nation-world/western-troops-on-the-ground-in-ukraine-is-not-ruled-out-in-the-future-french-leader-says/LDTMYLAUOZETBBIIP6TJKTCQ7Y/

Resolves YES if any NATO nation (excluding Ukraine, should it be added to NATO) sends official NATO troops OR its own militia to fight in Ukraine. Non-combat support or weapons do not count.

EDIT: question concerns deployments in 2024, but resolves 2025 so that info can come to light in case of major but covert deployment

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https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-olaf-scholz-slammed-claims-france-uk-help-ukraine-target-missiles/

I also found an interesting Twitter thread: https://twitter.com/RosendorfStefan/status/1742596778183074196

To me it seems the evidence is quite good that British soldiers are programming the goals for air strikes.

Updated resolution date in case it’s hard to figure out whether this happened. But still concerns 2024 deployment.

@aashiq Thanks I think that is fair.

Should not close at the end of 2025. We will only know if this happened many years down the line.

Russia would likely see this as a large provocation, I feel like as long as nothing drastic changes in momentum (ie. Kiev is about to be taken) EU countries are deterred

bought Ṁ5 YES

What is meant with "its own militia"?

Do weapon system operators (e.g. for storm shadow) count?

What kinds of special forces count as troops?

"Its own militia" was just trying to address some kind of case where NATO repudiates a troop deployment but a member nation sends soldiers anyway without the auspices of NATO.

I don't think I count weapon system operators, but not totally sure. Case by case.

Re special forces, do you have any examples?

@PS (although I assume they're not fighting on the front, but rather providing something like security for Western assets or staff, training, etc.)

@PS Hmm what are they doing? Idk about resolving on the basis of "everyone knows". If you find somewhere vaguely reputable that says the special forces are operating in a combat role, I can go ahead and resolve this now!

@aashiq Of course this sort of depends on the quantity. If it's like one guy, i don't think that's in the spirit of the question.

@aashiq Just want to check that "Non-combat support or weapons do not count." means NATO soldiers there to train Ukrainian soldiers, provide security for embassies, that sort of thing doesn't count, right?

Example: https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/us-special-operations-team-working-embassy-ukraine-sources/story?id=98543007

US special operations team working out of embassy in Ukraine: Sources

Officials emphasized that they are not in combat.

Same as PS said above:

(although I assume they're not fighting on the front, but rather providing something like security for Western assets or staff, training, etc.)

@jack Correct! The spirit of the question is: NATO countries send a bunch of troops over to directly shed blood to fight the Russians

Difficult to imagine this happening in 2024 from current perspective. 2025 sounds more plausible