Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI publicly releases GPT-5 on August 7, 2025. The release must be officially announced by OpenAI through their official blog or verified social media channels. If no such announcement is made by the end of August 7, 2025, the market will resolve to "No."

Background

OpenAI has been developing GPT-5, the anticipated successor to GPT-4.5, with expectations of significant advancements in reasoning, memory, and multimodal capabilities. Reports from various sources, including Tom's Guide and Axios, indicate a planned release in August 2025. However, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman has hinted at potential delays, mentioning upcoming product launches over the next "couple of months" and warning of possible "hiccups and capacity crunches" during the rollout period. (techradar.com)

Considerations

While multiple reports suggest an August 2025 release for GPT-5, the exact date remains unconfirmed. OpenAI's history of adjusting release timelines and Altman's recent comments about potential delays should be taken into account when making predictions.