Will Boris resign, for any reason, before the end of February? Dying in office does not count. 
#shortterm #UK #politics

Jan 15, 10:34am: #boris #borisjohnson

Politics

US Politics

Will the current Russia/Ukraine peace talks result in ending the war? Resolves YES liberally - if the war has ended within five days after the peace talks end, with even some media recognition that the peace talks contributed to the war ending, then will resolve as YES.

https://www.reuters.com/world/india/war-with-ukraine-putin-puts-nuclear-deterrence-forces-alert-2022-02-27/

Mar 2, 4:38pm: the talks ended on Feb 28, so will resolve on March 4

Close date updated to 2022-03-04 11:59 pm

Some have claimed this might happen (https://hindustannewshub.com/russia-ukraine-news/martial-law-may-be-imposed-in-russia-on-march-4-podoliak/). Resolves YES if multiple reputable western news outlets describe some measure in place in Russia as 'martial law'.

This resolves to yes if Russia invades Ukraine prior to February 20, 2022.

Feb 10, 10:33am: If the AP reports a physical incursion by Russia on Ukrainian soil.

Sports

This market resolves to YES if Russian troops or mercenaries paid by Russia attack anything in Moldova.

Pro-Russia elements from inside Moldova don't count even if they were paid/convinced by Russia.

Apr 26, 2:23pm: kind of surprised I didn't find this market on MM. Did I miss one?

Apr 27, 9:53am: Transnistria will not count for this market as Russian Troops have been there since 1992. Therefore, it is not a change in the current situation.

World

Wars

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the dollar price / exchange rate of one Russian Ruble (RUB) falls below $0.00500 at any time between February 28, 2022, and the resolution time of March 25, 2022, 9:00 PM, and “No” otherwise.

Mar 9, 10:05pm: The official resolution source will be https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=RUB&to=USD&view=1D



Close date updated to 2023-01-01 11:59 pm

According to the Russian Central Bank, as reported at https://www.cbr.ru/eng/currency_base/daily/

Feb 28, 10:55pm: I believe fair interpretation of the original wordings would be CB rate published on March 1st 11.30 MSK for the March 2nd.

Mar 1, 2:25pm: new rate was not published on time; waiting for it to resolve this market.

Economics

This market (Paired Market 1) resolves to "YES" if, two weeks after its close, Vladimir Putin has lost power in Russia.

Seems to me a failed war effort and a catering economy could easily lead to either a popular uprising or an elite coup resulting in Putin's overthrow.

Global Macro

Putin Assassination Markets

This market resolves to YES if Germany decides to import again the gas grom Russia via the NordStream 2 pipeline. At any time in 2022. Market closes 2022 12 31.

Resolves YES if @Duncan's market "Will Russia invade Ukraine before the end of February?" ( https://manifold.markets/Duncan/will-russia-invade-ukraine-before-t ) stays at or above 75% for at least 60 minutes.

The 60 minutes don't have to be contiguous. If the Duncan's market resolves early, I may resolve this market as soon as possible instead of waiting for an hour (since, presumably, the implied probability of a resolved market is not going to change).

This question is inspired by https://manifold.markets/SG/will-russia-invades-ukraine-trade-a, but hopefully can't be gamed as easily.

Feb 18, 10:31am: This market will resolve YES if Duncan's market resolves YES, regardless of it's implied probability at the time. This is not what I originally intended, but Gurkenglas convinced me that this way is better.

This market resolves in "YES" if, two weeks after closing, Bosnia-Herzegovina can be said to have fallen apart (i.e. into smaller countries) during 2022. Otherwise, it resolves in "NO".

Russia already occupies the Crimea; will Russia control another 46% (or greater) of the Ukraine by the end of the year?

Apr 2, 10:50am: I believe that if a new Ukrainian government comes to power and is sympathetic to Russia, this will probably resolve NO, but if, for example, the puppet government relies primarily on continued Russian military presence, it could still resolve YES.

Apr 2, 10:58am: If a territory is an active battleground on Ukrainian (or recently Ukrainian) soil, I would say it is not effectively controlled by Russia.

Ukraine

Russia

Free Money

Market resolves to YES in the event that a nuclear weapon is confirmed to be launched for combat, non-testing purposes before Jan 1, 2023, anywhere in the world.

Nuclear Risk

Will resolve when, in my best judgement, Russia has either won the war or when it has clearly failed to do so. If Russia has not yet won by the end of the year resolves as no. (A draw counts as no.)

Ukraine-Russia war

How It Ends

This market resolves to YES if there is a ceasefire or peace deal between Russia and Ukraine which ends large scale fighting before March 18th.

Otherwise it resolves to NO.

Will Russian military have a presence within the Ukraine before March 1st, 2202? #Russia #Ukraine #shortterm

Jan 15, 7:25am: #RussiaUkraine

Close date updated to 2022-02-21 5:42 pm

Close date updated to 2022-02-28 12:00 pm

Feb 22, 6:02pm: This will resolve YES if at least two major news sources state clearly that Russian tanks or troops have physically entered the Luhansk and Donetsk regions, or any other part of the Ukraine exclusive of the Crimea. News reports that random politician X said Y will be largely disregarded,  although major players (e.g., Biden, Putin, Zelensky) will be taken to be knowledgeable if motivated parties.

It should be noted that the separatists may have tanks of their own, and the Ukraine certainly does. The presence of tanks on the ground is weak evidence of invasion.

Feb 22, 7:54pm: The WSJ, the NYT, and the Washington Post are reporting Russian troop movements into Ukrainian territory. European news agencies are being more conservative, but various government officials in the UK and Poland have stated that Russian troops have entered the Ukraine. The market criteria has been met: I am resolving this to YES.

By the end of the day (EST) February 25th, will a total of at least M$ 15,000 (as judged by the size of the pool) be invested in this market?

#meta #shortterm #fun

Feb 22, 8:16pm: To clarify, this markets stays open until Feb 25th.

This will resolve yes if Russia is suspended for any period before the end of day (EST) on March 15.

Feb 26, 3:17pm: A situation in which only SOME Russian banks and not the entirety of the Russian state entity financial system (government/central Bank, etc) are suspended would count as NO. If someone knows more about how a SWIFT suspension would work I'd love to learn but I'll try to keep this a clear "Russia" rather than "some Russian banks" forecast.

Feb 28, 10:30am: Expanding on the previous comment, this will resolve NO if the SWIFT suspension is partial and still allows energy payments.

This market will resolve to YES if there are any groups in the UK where the NHS offers or has offered a second booster dose (for example here: https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavirus-covid-19/coronavirus-vaccination/coronavirus-booster-vaccine/ or in similar websites), as well as published official statistics of any such doses given on or before the 31st. 

If there is guidance available by time of the market closing, but no available statistics, the market will take up to one additional week to close to await any such statistics, if there are none available at that point, the market will resolve to NO.

Štefan's group

Meta/Facebook has incurred an overwhelming amount of negative publicity on their platforms, services, policies and leadership over the past few years despite (or because of) its vast and intensive usership. Will this public hate continue into 2023?

Resolution is subjective and based on sentiment from social media posts, media coverage, government regulation, etc. This question will resolve as YES if public opinion is still negative on January 1, 2023. This question will resolve as NO if either: 1) the company is no longer mentioned often in mainstream media, social media, government inquiries and so on; or 2) the company starts receiving praise for whatever reason.

Close date updated to 2022-06-30 11:59 pm

Mar 15, 12:51pm: To clarify, this question will not resolve until Jan 2023. In the original description, I use the phrasing "starts receiving praise," by which I mean the question will resolve NO if FB receives significant praise that carries through to the new year and balances out much of the negative sentiment.

Thanks for sticking with this as I work through the kinks of these "vibe" questions that I think this platform is perfect for.

Technology

From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10266/russia-sanctions-1-year-after-invasion/

Close date updated to 2023-02-21 11:59 pm

Metaculus

This will resolve positively if the House Speaker is a Republican on February 1, 2023. In unclear cases, this market will resolve the same way as the corresponding Metaculus market https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5814/2022-us-house-midterm-election/.

#politics #USCongress #USA

US 2022 Midterms

US 2022 Elections

This market will resolve to "YES" if the Republican nominee for governor of Texas wins the election in November 2022.

#Texas #Politics

Last target was way too easy. Lets 10x it

Volume judged by "M$xyz bet" above the graph.

Алексей Глинский

https://www.usnews.com/news/top-news/articles/2022-02-27/u-s-capitol-barricades-return-as-truckers-head-to-washington

Close date updated to 2022-03-31 11:59 pm

If agreement with the statement "I am high powered, driven, successful" correlates more than 0.08 with sexual submission ("Which describes you best?" with options from "totally submissive" to "totally dominant") among cis men in my survey data (n=13k or something), I will resolve this question 'yes.' 

(not sure if worth noting, but in general for my own questions I already know the answer to, I refrain from placing any bets)

Science

Will the "6. Will there be a major flare-up (worse than past 5 years) in Russia/Ukraine conflict in 2022?" market have a prediction of 99% or greater on March 1?
At the time of creating this market, it needs a YES bet of M$669 or greater to bring the prediction to 99%.

Decided by the market value at 00:00 EST on March 1, 2022.

https://manifold.markets/ACXBot/will-there-be-a-major-flareup-worse

Feb 28, 10:24am: Just FYI, I do not hold any non-ANTE shares (other than M$1 for comments that I immediately resold) of this market and I do not hold any shares of the target market. I am also precommitting to not buying any more shares of this market (again, other than the M$1 for comments) or the target market

Feb 28, 10:13pm: More precise resolution criteria: using the API endpoint for the market (https://manifold.markets/api/v0/market/Xydcz7oCHIoab5u0PQJW), check if the probAfter >= 0.99 for the last trade with created time less than or equal to 1646110800000

Mar 1, 12:11am: The final probability was 0.977, with a sale of M$51 of YES shares at 23:59:59.368. Very impressive showing here though, the probability ranged from 92% to 100% within the five minutes before midnight!

This market resolves as yes if Ukraine wins this year's Eurovision song contest. Eurovision votes often depend on political sympathies anyway.

Mar 2, 11:16pm: 
To clear up edge cases:
If Ukraine does not compete - Resolves No.
No eurovision this year  - Resolves No.
If Ukraine ties for first place - Resolves Yes.

Russian Mobilization

In July 2022, will there be airplane tickets available to general public for less than $1000 from Moscow to any other country (except Belarus)?
The market resolves Yes if at least  1 such ticket is available, and the plane lands successfully in the destination airport in July 2022.

This question resolves positively if, between December 11, 2021 and January 1, 2023, representatives of the Government of the Russian Federation announce or acknowledge that Russia has invaded Ukraine, or if any two Permanent Members of the United Nations Security Council announce or acknowledge that the Russian Federation has invaded Ukraine. These announcements must be describing events which took place (at least in part) during the same period, from December 11, 2021 to January 1, 2023. Areas of Ukraine already occupied (officially or de facto) by Russia as of December 11, 2021, will not trigger resolution.

Feb 3, 11:53am: 

as a ref: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8898/russian-invasion-of-ukraine-before-2023/

Feb 22, 11:26am: I'm still waiting for the metaculus question to resolve before resolving this market.

**Europe to Russia: Invade Ukraine, and We All Join NATO -- The Washington Post**

"You may not have been glued to the annual new year’s address by Finland’s president. That’s understandable but unfortunate, because Sauli Niinisto said some remarkable things. His speech should give the European Union an idea, to be discussed not just in Brussels but also — and especially — in the capitals of Sweden, Austria, Ireland, Cyprus and Malta.  

These six countries all belong to the EU but are otherwise officially non-aligned, meaning that they are not members of NATO, the transatlantic alliance that kept the peace during the Cold War and currently has to figure out how it would respond to a renewed invasion of Ukraine by Russia. 

The idea — inspired by Niinisto’s comments — is this: All six neutral countries, linking arms with the EU and NATO, should turn the ultimatum given by Russian President Vladimir Putin to the West on its head. He’s in effect demanding that NATO stop expanding forever, or else he attacks. Instead, the Finns, Swedes, Austrians, Irish, Maltese and Cypriots should explain that if he does attack, they will join NATO
Niinisto, of course, didn’t nearly go that far. In his diplomatic way, he merely reminded Finns that their “room to maneuver and freedom of choice also include the possibility of military alignment and of applying for NATO membership, should we ourselves so decide.” This freedom of choice is exactly what Putin wants to deny countries such as Ukraine, Moldova or Georgia." https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/europe-torussia-invade-ukraine-and-we-all-join-nato/2022/01/07/dc848014-6f7f-11ec-b1e2-0539da8f4451_story.html

—————————————————————————

This question resolves positively if Finland becomes an official member of NATO before 2023. Being on the "path" towards joining is not sufficient.

This question resolves on 1/1/2025 or after Finland joins NATO, whichever comes first.

#RussiaUkraine #NATO #Finland

This question resolves YES if Boris Johnson is still Prime Minister of the UK on Monday 11th July 2022, and NO in all other cases.

#MattYglesias2022
One of Matt Yglesias' predictions for 2022: https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions-are-hard
#Politics #Democrats #President #2022

The Life of Biden

#MattYglesias2022

This market resolves to YES if on 23:59 of 26 March 2022, the Ukrainian armed forces control at least 60,000 sq km of Ukrainian territory. I will use maps from Wikipedia in adjudicating the result. See https://pontifex.substack.com/p/ukraine-might-win for background and discussion.

To date ~14,000 people have been killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casualties_of_the_Russo-Ukrainian_War). The first year of the war was the deadliest, with just over 5,000 people dying (https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Casualties_of_the_Russo-Ukrainian_War&oldid=644065338).

There is talk of another Russia invasion on Ukraine this year with some saying it will be large scale. Will this year be at least as deadly as 2014? #RussiaUkraine #War

Mar 2, 2:19pm: Waiting for official confirmation to resolve

Apr 5, 2:48pm: 

Latest confirmed numbers from each side:

Russia MoD says 1,351 of its soldiers killed as of March 26: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/russian-general-claims-only-1-172549136.html

UN OHCHR says 1,430 civilians killed as of April 4: https://www.foxnews.com/world/un-1400-civilians-killed-russia-invasion-numbers-rise

Zelensky says 1,300 of its soldiers killed as of March 13: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/13/ukraine-mourns-soldiers-killed-russia-war-volodymyr-zelenskiy

= 4081 confirmed so far. Looking for any more recent reports which would push this past 5K as of now.

Apr 16, 7:18am: Zelensky says 2,500 - 3,000 troops which puts the total past 5k: https://www.reuters.com/world/ukraines-zelenskiy-between-2500-3000-ukrainian-troops-have-died-war-2022-04-16/

Алексей Глинский's calibration