This is prediction #9 in former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev's Twitter thread on New Year's predictions.
Resolves based on the volume of shares traded; currently, the New York Stock Exchange, a North American exchange, is largest.
Dec 26, 4:16pm: Will the largest stock exchange in the world be in Asia at the end of the 2023? → At the end of 2023, will the world's largest stock exchange be in Asia?
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ17 | |
| 2 | Ṁ11 | |
| 3 | Ṁ8 | |
| 4 | Ṁ7 | |
| 5 | Ṁ7 |
An effect here is that western exchanges are much less concentrated than east Asian ones - China just has the two exchanges (plus Hong Kong), Japan is almost all Topix. Europe is incredibly fragmented and while the US is mostly NYSE/nasdaq, there are a bunch of competitors who could theoretically take away more business from them.
Is this remotely likely to push the largest asian exchanges over NYSE? No, American markets have an enormous lead. But conditional on this resolving as no, there's a pretty good chance it's because china concentrates its trading in one exchange and the US doesn't, but the US would still have more total trading.