Will I be accepted to MIT? | Manifold Markets

closes Dec 21

arae's College Applications

Will I be accepted to MIT?

15%

chance

Resolves YES if my Early Action application to the Massachusetts Institute of Technology is accepted, and NO if it is rejected. If it's deferred, this market will resolve once I receive a final admissions decision.

Academic information submitted:
- intended major: Mathematics
- GPA: 4.16 weighted on a 4.0 scale
- standardized tests: SAT (790 English, 780 Math)

proof:

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is predicting NO at 22%

MIT has an acceptance rate of 4% (https://mitadmissions.org/apply/process/stats/). Seems like a good base rate.

@rockenots Yeah, this market seems pretty overpriced.

bought Ṁ10 of NO

Just interviewed with MIT! I don't think it went super well, but it didn't seem to go badly either.

Buying NO was a misclick on the arrows - I don't have a position in this market at the moment (I think it's too far towards YES, but I want to see if the market can predict better than I can.)

bought Ṁ10 NO at 15%

bought Ṁ100 NO from 17% to 15%

sold Ṁ5 YES from 18% to 17%

bought Ṁ10 YES from 17% to 18%

sold Ṁ232 NO from 13% to 17%

Kartikeya Singh

bought Ṁ15 NO at 13%

bought Ṁ25 YES from 11% to 13%

sold Ṁ82 NO from 10% to 11%

bought Ṁ10 NO from 11% to 10%

William Hargraves (bot)

bought Ṁ20 YES from 9% to 11%

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ150/Ṁ150 NO at 9%

bought Ṁ500 NO from 17% to 10%

bought Ṁ20 NO at 17%

sold Ṁ26 NO at 17%

bought Ṁ75 NO from 19% to 17%

bought Ṁ5 YES from 18% to 19%

bought Ṁ30 YES from 15% to 18%

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ41/Ṁ50 NO at 15% (cancelled)

bought Ṁ100 NO from 18% to 16%

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ30/Ṁ50 NO at 18% (cancelled)

bought Ṁ100 NO from 22% to 19%

bought Ṁ10 NO at 22%

bought Ṁ25 NO from 23% to 22%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot

filled limit order Ṁ20/Ṁ100 YES at 23% (cancelled)

bought Ṁ100 NO from 24% to 20%

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ10/Ṁ18 YES at 24% (cancelled)

bought Ṁ100 NO from 27% to 23%

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ13/Ṁ100 YES at 27% (cancelled)

bought Ṁ100 NO from 30% to 25%

sold Ṁ9 NO at 30%

bought Ṁ10 YES from 28% to 30%

bought Ṁ20 NO from 30% to 28%

sold Ṁ10 YES from 31% to 30%

bought Ṁ10 YES from 30% to 31%

bought Ṁ20 YES from 26% to 30%

bought Ṁ10 NO from 27% to 26%

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ36/Ṁ100 NO at 27% (cancelled)

bought Ṁ50 YES from 21% to 29%

bought Ṁ10 YES from 19% to 21%

bought Ṁ10 NO from 20% to 19%

bought Ṁ50 NO from 22% to 20%

bought Ṁ10 NO from 23% to 22%

bought Ṁ10 NO at 23%

bought Ṁ10 NO from 24% to 23%

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ17/Ṁ150 YES at 24% (cancelled)

bought Ṁ100 NO from 27% to 20%

bought Ṁ65 NO from 33% to 27%

sold Ṁ10 NO from 32% to 33%

bought Ṁ10 NO from 33% to 32%

sold Ṁ22 NO from 31% to 33%