Will I be accepted to MIT?
15%
chance

Resolves YES if my Early Action application to the Massachusetts Institute of Technology is accepted, and NO if it is rejected. If it's deferred, this market will resolve once I receive a final admissions decision.

Academic information submitted:
- intended major: Mathematics
- GPA: 4.16 weighted on a 4.0 scale
- standardized tests: SAT (790 English, 780 Math)

proof:

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rockenots avatar
rockenots
is predicting NO at 22%

MIT has an acceptance rate of 4% (https://mitadmissions.org/apply/process/stats/). Seems like a good base rate.

a avatar

@rockenots Yeah, this market seems pretty overpriced.

a avatar
arae
bought Ṁ10 of NO

Just interviewed with MIT! I don't think it went super well, but it didn't seem to go badly either.

a avatar

Buying NO was a misclick on the arrows - I don't have a position in this market at the moment (I think it's too far towards YES, but I want to see if the market can predict better than I can.)