Will I be accepted to Harvey Mudd College?
resolved Jun 20

Resolves YES if my Regular Decision application to Harvey Mudd College is accepted and NO if it is rejected. Resolves N/A if I am unable to get a definitive response for any reason.


Academic information submitted:

  • preferred majors: Math-CS joint major, Mathematics

  • GPA: 4.16 weighted on a 4.0 scale

  • standardized tests: SAT (790 English, 780 Math)

Get Ṁ200 play money

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predicted NO



predicted NO


predicted YES


What weighting system does your school use for your GPA? What are the point values of AP classes and/or how many APs do you have?

bought Ṁ10 of YES

I'll tell you what I think,
Harvey Mudd's no easy link.
But if you show your smarts and grit,
You'll surely make it, bit by bit.

predicted NO

felt very sad to take the no position here,

I really think harvey mudd fucked up if they don't let you in. Being a top manifold profiteer is an honestly an impressive achievement that in the right circles frankly would go further than their degree would.

bought Ṁ500 of NO

Waitlist admissions rates are generally very low

I was waitlisted; if I'm admitted off the waitlist this will resolve YES; otherwise it'll resolve NO on August 1, 2023.

Are you male or female?

@ShakedKoplewitz Also, any USAMO-style stuff?

@ShakedKoplewitz Female, but I left the optional gender box on my application blank. I haven't done any olympiads.

@a Hm, are there other ways to easily conclude your gender from the application (e.g. having a typically-female name)? IIRC HM has a 5x higher acceptance rate for women - I'd short this market for a male applicant but I don't think it's topo far off for a female applicant.

predicted NO

@ShakedKoplewitz A lot of the gender gap at engineering schools like HM is because men tend to apply regardless of their aptitude while women tend to only apply if they're a good fit. Conditioning on basic things like SAT scores and GPA gets rid of most of the bias.

@Gabrielle this seems false? Afaict there are both more female applicants and more female applications overall.

predicted NO

@ShakedKoplewitz That’s absolutely true generally speaking for colleges, but not for engineering schools like HM or MIT.

Harvey Mudd does have an intentional 50% gender policy, so there’s still going to be some bias toward letting in women more easily (partly because women tend to be scared away from STEM earlier in the pipeline!) but it’s not as strong a bias as it appears from the numbers.

Traders are really confident in me, wow! Harvey Mudd College has a 13% acceptance rate.

bought Ṁ55 of YES

Did you include that you are #3 on the Manifold leaderboards? Instant admission, I'm told.

@SG No, I haven't mentioned prediction markets at all in my applications.

@SG I see now that @acc just overtook her for #2, but you don't have to rub it in...

predicted YES

@SG I was right!

predicted YES

@SG High schoolers are all the same: work their asses off for big numbers they can put on their college applications, and the moment applications go out, start slacking off.

bought Ṁ35 of YES

I believe in you man 👍