Will I be accepted to Harvey Mudd College?
38%
chance

Resolves YES if my Regular Decision application to Harvey Mudd College is accepted and NO if it is rejected. Resolves N/A if I am unable to get a definitive response for any reason.

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Academic information submitted:

  • preferred majors: Math-CS joint major, Mathematics

  • GPA: 4.16 weighted on a 4.0 scale

  • standardized tests: SAT (790 English, 780 Math)

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ShakedKoplewitz avatar
Shaked Koplewitz

Are you male or female?

ShakedKoplewitz avatar
Shaked Koplewitz

@ShakedKoplewitz Also, any USAMO-style stuff?

a avatar
arae

@ShakedKoplewitz Female, but I left the optional gender box on my application blank. I haven't done any olympiads.

ShakedKoplewitz avatar
Shaked Koplewitz

@a Hm, are there other ways to easily conclude your gender from the application (e.g. having a typically-female name)? IIRC HM has a 5x higher acceptance rate for women - I'd short this market for a male applicant but I don't think it's topo far off for a female applicant.

Gabrielle avatar
Gabrielleis predicting NO at 45%

@ShakedKoplewitz A lot of the gender gap at engineering schools like HM is because men tend to apply regardless of their aptitude while women tend to only apply if they're a good fit. Conditioning on basic things like SAT scores and GPA gets rid of most of the bias.

ShakedKoplewitz avatar
Shaked Koplewitz

@Gabrielle this seems false? Afaict there are both more female applicants and more female applications overall.

Gabrielle avatar
Gabrielleis predicting NO at 42%

@ShakedKoplewitz That’s absolutely true generally speaking for colleges, but not for engineering schools like HM or MIT.

Harvey Mudd does have an intentional 50% gender policy, so there’s still going to be some bias toward letting in women more easily (partly because women tend to be scared away from STEM earlier in the pipeline!) but it’s not as strong a bias as it appears from the numbers.

a avatar
arae

Traders are really confident in me, wow! Harvey Mudd College has a 13% acceptance rate.

SG avatar
S Gbought Ṁ55 of YES

Did you include that you are #3 on the Manifold leaderboards? Instant admission, I'm told.

a avatar
arae

@SG No, I haven't mentioned prediction markets at all in my applications.

MichaelWheatley avatar
Michael Wheatley

@SG I see now that @acc just overtook her for #2, but you don't have to rub it in...

DesTiny avatar
DesTinybought Ṁ35 of YES

I believe in you man 👍