See: https://twitter.com/robinhanson/status/1789471660648669578
Spencer Schiff: "Next week will likely be remembered as one of the most significant weeks in human history."
Resolves YES if at deadline it seems reasonable to call this one of the 10 most significant weeks in human history.
Resolves NO if this would not be a reasonable thing to say.
Resolves early if the answer is obvious either way.
1,000
3.00What are the 10 most significant weeks in human history? Here are the first that come to mind (in chronological order):
1. Invention of fire
2. Toba supereruption
3. Death and alleged resurrection of Christ
4. Invention of the printing press
5. Fall of Constantinople
6. Columbus reaches the New World
7. Invention of the steam engine
8. Storming of the Bastille
9. Assassination of Archduke Ferdinand
10. Nuking of Hiroshima and Nagasaki
Release of ChatGPT should be on the list if artificial intelligence becomes as world-changing as many suspect.
@AlexanderMiller I feel like things like the invention of fire or the toba supereruption should not be allowed on this list. too early. My list would probably look more like:
1. Athens becomes a democracy
2. Alexander the Great inherits the throne
3. Death and alleged resurrection of Christ
4. Genghis Khan becomes the sole ruler in the Mongolian steppe
5. Invention of the printing press
6. Invention of the steam engine
7. Ford Model T is released
8. Assassination of Archduke Ferdinand
9. Nazi Germany invades Poland
10. Nuking of Hiroshima and Nagasaki
@ZviMowshowitz Yes, you should probably put the invasion of Poland on the list and take off the invention of the steam engine (which wasn't really a single week)
@AlexanderMiller After thinking about it, I presume Mr. Schiff has probably more of a longtermism perspective. If we look at what will impact human history for more than a thousand years. Then, the first human in space was maybe more significant than the Ford Model T. Or the discovery of nuclear fission more significant than dropping the bombs?
@Gideon37 i agree that it is likely more of a longterm thing.
for the record I considered putting the moon landing on my list for that reason, and I decided against it, because I think in a thousand years they will think of it as just one of the steps towards space travel, and not an especially significant one. like if you imagine the sequence leading to (where I hope) we will be in a thousand years it's like first rocket, first plane, first intercontinental flight, first commercial plane, first intercontinental missile, first artificial satellite, first animal to go to space, first mammal/primate to go to space, first primate to go to space and survive, first animal to orbit earth, first animal to orbit earth and land safely, first first human to go to space, first human to go to the moon, first person to spend a whole year in orbit, interstellar probe launched, commercial spaceflight and then hopefully one day first person on mars, first person on mercury, first person to spend a whole year on the moon, first person to spend a whole year on mars, first person to leave the solar system, etc. I'm not sure that any one of those steps or any of the others i didn't include can be said to be more significant than the rest.
I think gpt4o is kind of like that where you could argue that it was significant in that it was a step towards agi, but I think you'd have to also acknowledge the thousands of other steps along the path that were equally important. you could probably make the same argument for the printing press and the steam engine too I suppose, although I at least think of those as clearly the most significant steps on those paths.