Is Baidu's Ernie 4.0 on par with GPT-4?
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281
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2025
15%
chance

At Baidu World 2023 (https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLJPY3CV1nyNy5ZI3iaNNKsSq-2dPEc_tY)

they claimed they have Ernie 4.0. (also see: https://www.reuters.com/technology/chinas-baidu-unveils-latest-version-its-ernie-ai-model-2023-10-17/)

BEIJING, Oct 17 (Reuters) - Chinese technology giant Baidu (9888.HK) on Tuesday unveiled the newest version of its generative artificial intelligence (AI) model, Ernie 4.0, saying its capabilities were on par with those of ChatGPT maker OpenAI's pioneering GPT-4 model.

CEO Robin Li introduced Ernie 4.0 at an event in Beijing, focusing on what he described as the model's memory capabilities and showing it writing a martial arts novel in real-time. He also showed Ernie 4.0 creating advertising posters and videos.

Unfortunately we do not expect to get direct access to the model sufficient to test (e.g. on HuggingFace leaderboards) so I expect to use my best subjective judgment, taking into account that of the market. If we get an objective measure I find fair, I will use that.

Resolves to YES if I find the claim by Baidu to be demonstrated by the deadline to be mostly or entirely true - if I would award this 3.9 or more GPTs.

Resolves to NO if I find the claim by Baidu to be demonstrated by the deadline to be mostly or entirely false, and Ernie 4.0 is clearly below 3.9 GPTs. Lack of demonstration/evidence of ability by EOY '24 due to insufficient access will be considered sufficient absence of evidence.

If we have enough access but it is too close to call I may resolve this to a percentage, by default non-manipulated market price.

Resolves early if the answer is clear from a combination of market dynamics and what we know.

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