If Joe Biden runs for president in 2024, will 5 or more Democrats appear on a primary presidential debate stage?
29
444Ṁ4540
resolved Feb 2
Resolved
NO

Same rules as the Trump conditional debate stage market (but 5 candidates vs. 7).

Close date updated to 2024-02-01 11:59 pm

Politics
2024 US Presidential Election
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predictedNO

Sorry about the delay in resolution. I did want to be sure.

predictedNO

Anyone object to resolving this NO early?

predictedNO

@ZviMowshowitz I feel like this should not resolve NO early because Joe Biden might still drop out for whatever reason?

Note that there was such a debate in 2011, attended by seven Democrats (but not by Obama) https://web.archive.org/web/20120308183649/http://www.unionleader.com/article/20111220/NEWS0605/712209967 These candidates had basically 0 shot of winning the nomination, but it's very easy to hold an event and get a bunch of random people to show up and talk.
Surely it can't be common to run against a sitting president of your own party? Like what are base rates, how many Dems ran against Obama in 2012 or Republicans against Trump in 2020?

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