Zvi Mowshowitz's calibration
Grade: B, Score: -1.87
Probability after bet
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Zvi Mowshowitz bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
3 largest bets for each bucket
- If Donald Trump runs for President in 2024, will 7 or more Republican candidates appear in at least one televised Presidential Primary Debate?Ṁ10,000
- Will I (mostly) have to read the whole AI executive order?Ṁ10,000
- Will the Democrats make concessions to get the debt ceiling raised and/or default on the debt?Ṁ10,000