Will Isaac pay out the mana he promised to NO holders for selling?
resolved Jul 1

Resolve to Yes if he paid all No holders who sold their position and fulfilled his criteria.

Resolves to percentage if he only paid some of the No holders.

Get Ṁ600 play money

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predicted NO

<aside> 💡 I am using my moderation permissions to resolve this market on behalf of the creator. This is according to the Manifold Markets unresolved markets policy found here.

If the creator returns and wishes to change the resolution, please reply to this comment and tag @DavidChee. The admins will then undo the resolution I chose and you may pick your desired resolution.


predicted NO

@MarcusAbramovitch I understand this is a bit controversial to do but
1) I lose mana by doing this)
2) Isaac said he paid out everyone who messaged him.
3) @Zorn is welcome to undo the resolution
4) I assume Isaac will continue to pay out those who message him

I have paid out everyone who messaged me. I doubt many more will be doing so.

predicted NO

I think this should resolve to N/A, because it's impossible to verify the total count of: real people who were eligible, those who reached out to Isaac, those who received any amount of mana / usd on Paypal, and those who received the full promised amount.

The number of people who will publicly state on Manifold or Discord that they received / didn't receive promised funds from Isaac will be much smaller than the actual number of people in those categories. And to complicate things, some of them might be bots, and some of them might lie to improve or worsen Isaac's reputation.

Should fake accounts count in the denominator or not, and should people who were eligible but didn't reach out count or not - are very subjective questions.

Given those factors, estimates of the final % will vary wildly, potentially giving you anything you want, from 5% to 95%. Therefore, it's impossible to objectively resolve this market.

I expect some of them are never going to reach out to me on Discord, and it'll be a little unclear how many are alt accounts, so there isn't going to be a completely objective resolution to this market.

bought Ṁ95 of YES

@IsaacKing pretty sure everyone read this market as "will isaac hold his promise?". So strong YES imo.

predicted NO

@Karsh I think in spirit it's a YES but the market description says it resolves to "percentage if he only paid some of the No holders" which sounds strongly like it should resolve to a percentage of the total, if only some get paid.

sold Ṁ285 of YES

@xyz Percentage of mana, or percentage of NO holders? Those might be quite different, and the description doesn’t say.

predicted NO

@JimHays interesting fact: at least 162 out of the 216 traders he listed in his omg-he's-so-honest comment are his bots (he used them in this market). This corresponds to 65.5% (87212 / 133247) of the mana he needs to 'return'. It's up for you to decide how this affects the market resolution.

bought Ṁ30 of NO

I would have expected people who did this to hedge more

Will he?