Outcome of this market will decide whether I join the "Yes" or "No" side in the linked market
12
16
230
resolved Dec 21
Resolved
N/A

https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-this-markets-probability-be-at

Resolves to Yes if the probability is >=50%.

Resolves to No if the probabilty is <50%

I will put in 5000Ṁ on the Yes side of the linked market if this market resolved to Yes
I will put in 5000Ṁ to the No side of the linked market if this market resolved to No
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ old rule, outdated ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^


[Edit: change of format. Resolving on 22nd is probably too late to have meaningful impact on Isaac King's market. ]

I'm setting a 5000Ṁ limit order on each side at 25% and 75%.
I will resolve the market as No if the 75% limit order is broken.
I will resolve the market as Yes if the 25% limit order is broken.
I would end up with 20,000Ṁ if this market is resolved. Whoever broke my limit order first have full control over how I invest the 20,000Ṁ (Which side to invest, doing it through limit order or direct order, and when to buy in)

Given that I changed the resolution creteria after some has invested into the market (especially @Mira, @hambie), I will fully reimburse the loss of any party at market closing.

The market resolves to N/A if no side managed to break my 25%/75% limit order at market closing (Dec 20th 11:59 pm ET)


Get Ṁ200 play money
Sort by:

@Mira @hambie @BionicD0LPH1N @IsaacKing

[Edit: change of format. Resolving on 22nd is probably too late to have meaningful impact on Isaac King's market. ]

I'm setting a 5000Ṁ limit order on each side at 25% and 75%.
I will resolve the market as No if the 75% limit order is broken.
I will resolve the market as Yes if the 25% limit order is broken.
I would end up with 20,000Ṁ if this market is resolved. Whoever broke my limit order first have full control over how I invest the 20,000Ṁ (Which side to invest, doing it through limit order or direct order, and when to buy in)

Given that I changed the resolution creteria after some has invested into the market (especially @Mira, @hambie), I will fully reimburse the loss of any party at market closing.

The market resolves to N/A if no side managed to break my 25%/75% limit order at market closing (Dec 20th 11:59 pm ET)

predicted YES

@Zorn What's the incentive for someone to give you M$20,000 and then have you invest it into my market, rather than just investing the M$20,000 themselves?

@IsaacKing I'm adding my original M$5,000 to the package. you get M$20000 by investing M$15,000

It doesn’t make sense to wait till the 22nd to make the decision, since by that point it will probably already be decided whether the market resolves positively or negatively.

Or did I misunderstand, and you’ll make the decision earlier?

@BionicD0LPH1N You're right, may be I should make the decision earlier

@Zorn speaking about that, are you interested in recruiting me? I'm willing to commit to one side for a price

@Zorn Yeah, do you have discord?

@BionicD0LPH1N dmed you on discord

predicted YES

@Zorn Are the resolution criteria of this market changing?

@IsaacKing updated. see description

Huh, this is neat. A third level to the existing "spend mana to make mana" dynamic.

@IsaacKing I even made a new market tag just for you