Will TikTok be banned in the US by the end of 2024?

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Same comment as on similar markets: The bill currently working through congress would only ban the app after a year. Court challenges could delay this. It seems unlikely to me that a different bill would supersede this one, or that Biden would ban by executive order while legislation was pending. I think this is a NO.

Does this market resolve yes if tiktok is forced to sell

Extending the close date per the discussion below. If this is a mistake let me know and we can fix it!

@ZoharJackson Is this supposed to be closed? It seems like it should remain open for trading until end of 2024.

predicts NO

Sometimes people close markets significantly before resolution time because they don't want to pay subsidy to people driving the market to 0%/100% once it's close enough to the end date that the eventual resolution is obvious.

@WilliamEhlhardt And sometimes the end date is a default, like one month, because people don't think about it too hard. Hence my asking.

My general experience, having looked at a lot of these, is that the inadvertent default close date is far more common than the intentional early close, but that both happen often enough that I shouldn't assume.

@WilliamEhlhardt this would make more sense (imo) if the question was for the end of 2023 but there's more than a year remaining? or I misunderstood your comment?

predicts NO

@shankypanky whoops, you're right. Sorry for the noise!

@WilliamEhlhardt No worries! Yeah, if it had closed shortly before the resolution time I would have ignored it until after resolution time.

bought Ṁ10 of YES

A few months ago, there was strong bipartisan support for banning TikTok over concerns about protecting user data from the Chinese government. Lawmakers grilled TikTok's CEO during a hearing, but since then, Congress has been relatively quiet on the issue of an outright ban.

There is at least one bill in Congress, the RESTRICT Act, which gives the Commerce Secretary the power to review and prohibit certain transactions between the U.S. and foreign adversaries, including China. This bill could be added to a major defense spending bill, but it's unclear whether lawmakers still want to push for a ban. Experts suggest that moving against TikTok could have political implications and end up in court.

President Joe Biden has expressed a desire for TikTok's parent company, ByteDance, to sell off TikTok, but this may be challenging given TikTok's value to ByteDance.

As of June 2023, federal employees and state employees in 34 (out of 50) states are prohibited from using the app on government devices. In May 2023, Montana became the first state to ban TikTok on all personal devices, though this will not take effect until January 1, 2024, and is being challenged in court. So there are chances that they may banned it if the tiktok do not sell it on them.