Source: the Nielsen SVOD streaming top 10: https://www.nielsen.com/data-center/top-ten/#streaming. This only lists the current week, so I use RatingsRyan as an archive.
"Shogun" (2024) is an epic and critically acclaimed TV miniseries currently streaming on FX/Hulu. Its finale will air on April 23rd.
"Anyone But You" (2023) is a romcom starring Glenn Powell.& Sydney Sweeney which turned into a surprise hit at the box office. It debuts on Netflix on the same day, April 23rd.
This market resolves YES if "Shogun" has more streaming minutes in any single week (until the week after its finale airs) than "Anyone But You" has in its first week on Netflix.
For "Anyone But You", I will use the first week it appears on the Nielsen chart (which usually doesn't cover a full week after its release).
For "Shogun", I will consider any of the weeks during the season (I'll halt one week after the finale, as I don't think viewership will increase).
For an example of the viewership numbers I will use, on the week ending February 25th, the children's cartoon "Bluey" was streamed for 1.081 billion minutes.