Will Netflix have a higher TV streaming share than the next three services combined, for every month in 2024? (Nielsen)
resolved May 14

The source I am using is Nielsen. Here is their February 2024 report.

  • 1. Netflix (7.8%)

  • 2. Hulu (2.8%)

  • 3. Prime Video (2.8%)

  • 4. Disney+ (1.9%)

Netflix has a dominant lead—Hulu, Prime Video, & Disney+ combined are 7.5%, while Netflix has 7.8% (I am excluding YouTube, as it has a fundamentally different business model). The story was similar in January—Netflix had 7.9%, the next three combined had 7.4%.

Will Netflix maintain its dominance in streaming? Or can its competitors catch up?

This market resolves NO if there is a month in 2024 where the monthly Nielsen streaming report lists Netflix with a smaller percentage of streaming than any three other services combined. It resolves YES otherwise.

  • I will use the precision provided by these Nielsen reports (i.e. currently a percentage with a single decimal).

  • If for some reason I am no longer able access Nielsen streaming reports (that follow a similar format as the one I linked to) for multiple differnet months in 2024, then I will resolve this N/A.

  • Again, I am excluding YouTube, and "Other streaming" (obviously). Currently, any other streaming service listed in the February report would count, but if Nielsen starts listing things that aren't proper streaming services (e.g. TikTok, etc) then I may have to make a ruling and exclude those.

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@traders In April, Netflix was only 7.6%. Prime was 3.2%, Hulu was 3.1%, Disney+ was 1.8%, for a sum of 8.1%. Resolves NO.

Can Netflix bounce back in viewership?


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