Source: The "Domestic Opening" number listed on BoxOfficeMojo for "Trap" (2024).
I will use the "Domestic Opening" listed on BoxOfficeMojo, however it is defined (e.g. typically the 3-day FSS weekend + previews).
For example, the "Domestic Opening" for the M. Night Shyamalan's "Old" was $$16,854,735. This is the equivalent number I will use.
it's definitely going to resolve NO, but FWIW the numbers posted currently are from yesterday, i.e. they're the sunday morning estimates (before people had actually gone to the theaters yet). it's unlikely to change too much, the estimates are pretty good, but generally i wait until the actuals are reported (or even til they're posted to BOM, which can be a day later)
May was disastrous but june/july have bounced back. I still by default assume everything will flop, but this got a lot of buzz and m night movies often do well commercially. $20mil might be a bit too high, the trades had it tracking a bit lower, but I wanted to err on the higher side in case it picks up