Source:
I will use the "Daily Box Office For 2024" page from BoxOfficeMojo. https://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/2024/?view=year.
It lists the highest grossing (domestic) film for each day ("#1 Release" column).
If "Dune: Part Two" is listed as the highest grossing film for 16 or more days within the month of March, this market resolves YES. Otherwise, it resolves NO.
For example, in 2021 the original "Dune" is listed as the #1 film for 10 different days (spread between October & November).
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@Ziddletwix @traders I do not believe I have miscounted. Resolving NO. Dune 2 was #1 for exactly 15 days in March (nailed the over/under exactly when setting this up, nailbiter).
(Weekend actuals aren't fully finalized on BOM but Dune will be tens of millions behind GxK, and in fact not even close to #2 on any of those days regardless. Its last #1 day was March 21st).
I'll probably keep taking the NO side of this, but to make sure there's no confusion, the description requires >15 days, i.e. "16 or more", within the month of March. By my count, Thursday March 21st was its 15th day at #1, so it'll need to find another day at #1 for this to resolve YES. Certainly possible, but it'll have to pass Ghostbusters (and/or GxK) by March 31st.
(I assume everyone betting on this is on the same page, but figured I'd repeat it just in case. Or if I miscounted how many days Dune 2 has spent at #1 so far, I guess I'll lose a bunch of mana.)
Am I misreading this one @Ziddletwix, I'm already counting 15 days, so one extra day would do the job right?
@TheWabiSabi Yup! By my count, Dune has been #1 for 15 days, up through and including Thursday.
For disclosure, I’m holding NOs because my prediction is Thursday will be its last day at #1. Ghostbusters will start out a fair bit ahead, and then next weekend GxK will be #1. But I’m not super confident in predicting dailies like that, so it’s possible Dune finds a 16th day at #1