Will "Dune: Part Two" have (domestic) gross >37 times larger than "Madame Web" during the weekend of March 1-3?
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resolved Mar 5
Resolved
NO

Source: I will use the BoxOfficeMojo domestic weekend chart for March 1-3. Likely link: https://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/2024W09/?ref_=bo_hm_rw.

For reference, in the equivalent chart for the previous weekend (February 23-25), "Madame Web" grossed $5,915,452, and "Bob Marley: One Love" grossed $13,458,354.

Example: If the (domestic) gross for "Madame Web" during the weekend of March 1-3 is $2M, then "Dune: Part Two" would need to gross >$74M for this to resolve YES.

Additional notes:

  • What matters is the (domestic) gross of both movies during the weekend of March 1-3 (this is Dune's opening weekend, but the opening weekends are not being compared).

  • I will use whatever BoxOfficeMojo lists for the weekend totals, however they compute it.

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$3,164,834*37 > $117 million, demolishing Dune. This resolves NO

(When you multiply by such a large amount, you're bound to eventually be way over or under, but as a starting line this seems pretty spot on. Just turns out MW held better than I expected. Might try some more like these.)

bought Ṁ4,000 NO

@Ziddletwix you were right on the likely link, nice

First day was 40:1, so that gave me some hope.

@Panfilo Oooh box office reporting is very tricky =|. If that was comparing the 800k friday for MW to ~32M for dune, then the way they report those numbers is a bit misleading. Dune's "friday" release day actually includes all gross that happens earlier, i.e. thursday previews + some showings the previous sunday. it's weird, but that's how it works. Dune gets to "count" that for its opening weekend, but that might be why the Friday-to-Friday comparison was misleading. Dune's "true friday" (as some people call it) was more like 20M.

(not sure if those were the numbers you saw, but if so figured I'd try to explain it, because box office numbers are pretty confusing!)

@Ziddletwix But you're using the website, not the "true" Friday, wherever that is, right?

@Panfilo Yup, as per the description I'll use whatever BoxOfficeMojo lists for the weekend https://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/2024W09/?ref_=bo_hm_rw (you can look at past weekends to get a sense of the numbers).

That should include Dune's previews, not just the "true Friday". Because this reporting is actually basically universal, AFAIK. Like, in an article you'll find someone quote a "true friday". but previews are basically always included in the opening day, whether it's the dailies or weekend or anything on thenumbers/boxofficemojo. it's a pretty universal standard, from waht I can tell.

(I guess the easiest shorthand is just that if sites say that a movie opens on march 1st, then they won't list any days before march 1st, so any gross that happens prior must technically be counted with march 1st. that's my best understanding of how it works).

(and basically all the current markets for dune's opening weekend should follow this convention. that's why it's aimed for 80-85M, not ~70M)

bought Ṁ250 NO

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