Will "Dune: Part Two" account for >70% of the total domestic box office during its opening weekend?
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17
6.4k
resolved Mar 4
Resolved
YES

For further reference:

  • For an example of a very high %, "Spider Man: No Way Home" accounted for 92% of the box office on its opening weekend.

  • Similarly, "Dune: Part Two" has almost no competition on its opening weekend, although its projected opening is fairly low compared to most that break >70%.

  • The highest proportion for 2024 so far is 29% ("Argylle" on its opening weekend).


[1] This assumes that "Dune: Part Two" is #1 at the box office. It will, but if it somehow isn't, then this market must naturally resolve NO (it cannot be >50%), and so I won't need to compute anything further.

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Opening weekend is wrapped up, but there's plenty more to predict for Dune's box office run. Here's a market for its final domestic total:

bought Ṁ4,000 YES

Dune's actuals are up on thenumbers.com, 72% is the % of the total box office, so this resolves YES

opened a Ṁ1 YES at 63% order

What’s in theatres to compete with it? Drive-Away Dolls is a little indie with some A-listers, The Chosen Ep 4-6?

Dune’s got a lot of runway here.

@mattyb Yup fair pointit's hard to picture anything else that weekend generating meaningful gross. I don't have any intuition for this metric ("% of total") yet, figured I'd try some markets to see if they stick.

I think I'll try a duplicate of this for 80%, so there's a better chance of one of them ending up in the relevant range.

Looking at the weekend chart again now, it seems like the lowest "total excluding #1" weekends since the start of 2023 have been between 35M-40M. If it's only 35M, then 70% for Dune is a reasonable target. OTOH, glancing at the schedule, it's hard to imagine the rest of the movies tallying up even to 35M? (i.e. maybe we can just count on this setting a new "recent low")