The Numbers has a weekend tracker for each year: https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office-records/domestic/all-movies/weekend/released-in-2024
I will resolve this based on the column "No. 1 / Combined" [1] for the weekend of March 1st.
For example, "Dune" (2021) released on October 22nd, and its "No. 1 / Combined" column lists 42%. Thus, it would have resolved NO. This is the equivalent number I will use, however it is computed. (Note that this is all domestic).
I will use whatever level of precision is displayed by The Numbers (i.e. 70% resolves NO, regardless of the true decimal).
For further reference:
For an example of a very high %, "Spider Man: No Way Home" accounted for 92% of the box office on its opening weekend.
Similarly, "Dune: Part Two" has almost no competition on its opening weekend, although its projected opening is fairly low compared to most that break >70%.
The highest proportion for 2024 so far is 29% ("Argylle" on its opening weekend).
[1] This assumes that "Dune: Part Two" is #1 at the box office. It will, but if it somehow isn't, then this market must naturally resolve NO (it cannot be >50%), and so I won't need to compute anything further.
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Opening weekend is wrapped up, but there's plenty more to predict for Dune's box office run. Here's a market for its final domestic total:
Dune's actuals are up on thenumbers.com, 72% is the % of the total box office, so this resolves YES
What’s in theatres to compete with it? Drive-Away Dolls is a little indie with some A-listers, The Chosen Ep 4-6?
Dune’s got a lot of runway here.
@mattyb Yup fair point—it's hard to picture anything else that weekend generating meaningful gross. I don't have any intuition for this metric ("% of total") yet, figured I'd try some markets to see if they stick.
I think I'll try a duplicate of this for 80%, so there's a better chance of one of them ending up in the relevant range.
Looking at the weekend chart again now, it seems like the lowest "total excluding #1" weekends since the start of 2023 have been between 35M-40M. If it's only 35M, then 70% for Dune is a reasonable target. OTOH, glancing at the schedule, it's hard to imagine the rest of the movies tallying up even to 35M? (i.e. maybe we can just count on this setting a new "recent low")
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Why use play money?People are also trading
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
Why use play money?
Why use play money?