I will resolve these markets based on the Tomatometer score (i.e. critics not audiences) two weeks after release (i.e. July 12th).
Details
I will use whatever precision is listed by Rotten Tomatoes (typically an integer percentage, no decimal—note that these are strict inequalities).
For example, "A Quiet Place Part II" (2021) currently has a Tomatometer of 91%. This is the equivalent number I will use (i.e. >90% would resolve YES, and >91% would resolve NO0.
"A Quiet Place" (2018) has a Tomatometer of 96%.
1,000
3.00@traders 87%. Check out RT score markets for DEADPOOL 3 & TRAP
the review embargo only lifting on June 27, which is also the same day Thursday previews begin for the film. One might, wisely, assume that this decision has to do with Paramount thinking that the film will not get well-reviewed by critics.
historically "review embargo dropping right before release" has been a bad sign. but i do think these days it's a bit more mixed—some seem to think it's good to get a buzz of press right before release. (e.g. oppenheimer dropped its embargo right before release, & last week inside out 2 dropped its embargo just 2 days before release, & while the reviews weren't perfect, they were plenty good enough to help box office). e.g. reddit discussion for the inside out 2 embargo here, it can be slightly mixed signals.
in general it's probably more likely a bad sign than a good sign (especially because it seems like the above is mostly a disney strategy, after the disaster of indy 5), but i think it's dangerous to read too much into it.