"Civil War" Letterboxd page: https://letterboxd.com/film/civil-war-2024/
This market resolves to the exact Letterboxd user rating for "Civil War" (2024) when I check two weeks after release (i.e. April 26th).
Details
I will use the precision displayed by Letterboxd (i.e. a single decimal).
When you place a bet (using "Advanced" mode), it should specify whether the bounds of the bucket are inclusive or exclusive (e.g. 3.8 ≤ val < 4.0, which does not include a displayed rating of 4.0, whether or not Letterboxd has done any rounding).
For reference, here are the Letterboxd user ratings for some other movies directed by Alex Garland:
"Ex Machina": 4.0
"Annihiliation": 3.6
"Men": 2.8
I'm unfamiliar with these numeric markets—LMK if anything looks off, & be careful before you place bets (I don't find them super intuitive yet).
1,000
3.00🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ173 | |
| 2 | Ṁ14 | |
| 3 | Ṁ10 | |
| 4 | Ṁ0 |
@mattyb Hmm, if you can't, I'll add another disclaimer about that. Not great!
(I'm personally a much bigger fan of independent "greater than" MC markets to cover numerical values, but in case this one gets more use I do want to be on top of the new options. generally I find this much less intuitive, even ignoring the major selling issue)
@Ziddletwix i’ve noticed that a binary will often outperform a market with 4 discrete options idk. i’ve been on a binary kick recently. curious how this one does
@mattyb yeah anecdotally that's how it feels for me. for popular topics, I can do independent MC, since it will get activity anyways. for more niche things, I try to set a binary over/under. my guess is it might simply be what grabs people's attention? "will X be > Y" can be immediately read from the title, while a bunch of MC options isn't quite so immediate. in cases where I can do MC, it obviously makes things a lot easier—for binary markets I have to give it soem thought to guess an over/under that will hopefully stay relevant as the market goes on.
(it could also be that MC are specifically penalized for some reason, or maybe I'm overestimating the difference, but yeah my intuition is MC take a bit more work to get people to click on it)