"Oppenheimer" releases in Japan on March 29th. Will it outgross "Tenet" during its first weekend? (>$2.332M)
resolved Apr 5

[Before betting, please read the description in full—international box office reporting can be unreliable, and I will resolve based on the linked source, whether or not other sources agree.]

Due to its sensitive subject matter, "Oppenheimer" (2023) did not initially release in Japan. However, after extensive discussion, Universal partnered with local distributor Bitters End and the film is scheduled for a March 29th theatrical release.

Resolution source:

  • I will use the weekend gross listed on BoxOfficeMojo (weekend list).

  • The first weekend for "Tenet" (Nolan's previous film) was September 26-27 (2020), with weekend gross of $2,332,849.

  • This market resolves YES if the gross listed for "Oppenheimer" by BoxOfficeMojo in its first weekend of release (which is likely to be March 30-31) in Japan is greater than $2,332,849.


  • I will use the weekend gross listed by BoxOfficeMojo, however it is defined.

  • The reporting of international box office gross is not always consistent, and this may not exactly match what's reported by other sources.

  • For reference, in its first weekend of release, "Dune: Part Two" grossed $1,321,529.

  • I will use the first weekend where "Oppenheimer" appears on BoxOfficeMojo.

  • To be specific, the "first weekend" for "Tenet" is actually a bit fuzzy. September 26-27 is the first weekend where it appears on BoxOfficeMojo, but technically it's listed as the second weekend, and the total gross at that point is $11.4M. Regardless, this market resolves based on the >$2.332M threshold. I'm only using "Tenet" for the comparison so people have a rough benchmark for intuition (and to show how I will use the source).

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bought Ṁ18,800 YES

Actuals are in: $2,506,083. Resolves YES.

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