"Oppenheimer" releases in Japan on March 29th. Will it outgross "Dune: Part Two" during its first weekend? (>$1.321M)
resolved Apr 5

[Before betting, please read the description in full—international box office reporting can be unreliable, and I will resolve based on the linked source, whether or not other sources agree.]

Due to its sensitive subject matter, "Oppenheimer" (2023) did not initially release in Japan. However, after extensive discussion, Universal partnered with local distributor Bitters End and the film is scheduled for a March 29th theatrical release.

Resolution source:

  • I will use the weekend gross listed on BoxOfficeMojo (weekend list).

  • "Dune: Part Two" opened the weekend of March 16-17, with listed gross of $1,321,529.

  • This market resolves YES if the gross listed for "Oppenheimer" by BoxOfficeMojo in its first weekend of release (which is likely to be March 30-31) in Japan is greater than $1,321,529.


  • I will use the weekend gross listed by BoxOfficeMojo, however it is defined.

  • The reporting of international box office gross is not always consistent, and this may not exactly match what's reported by other sources.

  • For reference, in its first weekend of release, Nolan's previous film "Tenet" grossed $2,332,849.

  • I will use the first weekend where "Oppenheimer" appears on BoxOfficeMojo.

Get Ṁ200 play money

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bought Ṁ15,000 YES

The actuals are in, Oppenheimer grossed $2,506,083, resolves YES.

There's also a market for its total gross compared to Dune 2.

bought Ṁ400 YES
bought Ṁ200 YES
bought Ṁ100 YES