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MANIFOLD
[Kalshi] Nobel Peace Prize winner
28
Ṁ1.7kṀ12k
resolved Oct 9
100%8%
Kalshi resolves every option they list to 0%
12%
Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms
1.5%
Doctors Without Borders
5%
Save the Children
14%
Mykola Kuleba / Save Ukraine
5%
International Court of Justice (ICJ)
3%
Committee to Protect Journalists
0.8%
International Criminal Court
18%
Yulia Navalnaya
0.7%
International Peace Research Association (IPRA)
0.7%
Concordis International
1.6%
Mark Carney
0.8%
International Association of Judges (IAJ)
1.1%
Reporters Without Borders (RSF)
1.5%
Sara Al-Saqqa
1.5%
International Space Station / ISS partnership
25%Other
  • This is a mirror of the Kalshi Nobel Peace Prize market. It will follow their resolution.

  • To be precise, it is not a perfect mirror, because Manifold's dependent MC markets have a different structure than the Kalshi market—the options here must sum to exactly 100% (whereas Kalshi could resolve multiple or none to 100%).

  • Thus, I will take their resolution and translate it into the Manifold equivalent (e.g., Kalshi resolves multiple to 100% -> proportional resolution here).

  • "Other" covers the other fringe options that Kalshi lists (but were trading near 0% so I didn't yet add them here).

  • The special option "Kalshi resolves every option to 0%" covers the case where Kalshi resolves every option they list to 0% (it does not refer to "Kalshi resolves all options listed by this market to 0%”—since there are some options covered by "Other").

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Everything listed resolved to NO: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnobelpeace/nobel-peace-prize/kxnobelpeace-26

The winner was South African judge and human rights lawyer Navanethem "Navi" Pillay.