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MANIFOLD
[Kalshi] Nobel Peace Prize winner
3
Ṁ1.7kṀ431
Oct 9
17%
Kalshi resolves every option they list to 0%
14%
Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms
9%
Doctors Without Borders
9%
Save the Children
8%
Other
6%
Mykola Kuleba / Save Ukraine
5%
International Court of Justice (ICJ)
4%
Sara Al-Saqqa
3%
Committee to Protect Journalists
3%
International Criminal Court
3%
Yulia Navalnaya
3%
International Peace Research Association (IPRA)
3%
Concordis International
3%
Mark Carney
3%
International Association of Judges (IAJ)
3%
Reporters Without Borders (RSF)
3%
International Space Station / ISS partnership
  • This is a mirror of the Kalshi Nobel Peace Prize market. It will follow their resolution.

  • To be precise, it is not a perfect mirror, because Manifold's dependent MC markets have a different structure than the Kalshi market—the options here must sum to exactly 100% (whereas Kalshi could resolve multiple or none to 100%).

  • Thus, I will take their resolution and translate it into the Manifold equivalent (e.g., Kalshi resolves multiple to 100% -> proportional resolution here).

  • "Other" covers the other fringe options that Kalshi lists (but were trading near 0% so I didn't yet add them here).

  • The special option "Kalshi resolves every option to 0%" covers the case where Kalshi resolves every option they list to 0% (it does not refer to "Kalshi resolves all options listed by this market to 0%—since there are some options covered by "Other").

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