This is a mirror of the Kalshi Nobel Peace Prize market. It will follow their resolution.
To be precise, it is not a perfect mirror, because Manifold's dependent MC markets have a different structure than the Kalshi market—the options here must sum to exactly 100% (whereas Kalshi could resolve multiple or none to 100%).
Thus, I will take their resolution and translate it into the Manifold equivalent (e.g., Kalshi resolves multiple to 100% -> proportional resolution here).
"Other" covers the other fringe options that Kalshi lists (but were trading near 0% so I didn't yet add them here).
The special option "Kalshi resolves every option to 0%" covers the case where Kalshi resolves every option they list to 0% (it does not refer to "Kalshi resolves all options listed by this market to 0%”—since there are some options covered by "Other").
🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ673 | |
| 2 | Ṁ46 | |
| 3 | Ṁ22 | |
| 4 | Ṁ12 | |
| 5 | Ṁ11 |
Everything listed resolved to NO: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnobelpeace/nobel-peace-prize/kxnobelpeace-26
The winner was South African judge and human rights lawyer Navanethem "Navi" Pillay.