Manifold has announced that daily loans will end on April 30th. Daily loans enable users to place bets on long term markets without locking up their mana. To brainstorm potential replacements, see Eliza’s bounty. In the meantime, after daily loans are removed, will we see a noticeable reduction in the proportion of newly created markets with a long time horizon? 

To keep things simple, I will define “long term” as any market whose close date is after 2024. I queried all markets [1] created in the month of March, and 41.3% had a close date after the end of 2024.

On June 1st, I will run the same query for the month of May. This market resolves YES if the proportion of markets created in May with close date after the end of 2024 is <33%.

[1]. This only includes markets where you can bet (not polls or bounties).