In March, 41% of newly created markets were long term (close date after 2024). In May, will that shrink to <33%?
resolved Jun 1

Manifold has announced that daily loans will end on April 30th. Daily loans enable users to place bets on long term markets without locking up their mana. To brainstorm potential replacements, see Eliza’s bounty. In the meantime, after daily loans are removed, will we see a noticeable reduction in the proportion of newly created markets with a long time horizon? 

To keep things simple, I will define “long term” as any market whose close date is after 2024. I queried all markets [1] created in the month of March, and 41.3% had a close date after the end of 2024.

On June 1st, I will run the same query for the month of May. This market resolves YES if the proportion of markets created in May with close date after the end of 2024 is <33%.

[1]. This only includes markets where you can bet (not polls or bounties).

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@traders Just ran the code, the final tally I get is ~40.2%. So this resolves NO.

This market didn't quite work as intended. There was a huge surge of markets created right before May 15th, dominating the total for the month (placeholders + entire NFL seasons of games added). Also, smaller point, but the Dec 31st cutoff doesn't make sense—lots of 2024 markets end early in January. So this generally didn't test what I wanted it to.

FWIW, checking simply for May 20th-31st with the Dec 31st cutoff, the % of long term markets (under the crude 2024 definition) is still around ~40%. That fits with my anecdotal experience that people are still making a fair number of markets (many aren't possible with loans, but we've seen a similar magnitude of decrease in market creation of all sorts). Personally I don't know how people have the mana to spend on these markets that won't resolve in any reasonable span of time, but I don't think the pivot has resulted in a sharp decrease in those markets, even if this market didn't test it properly.

@Ziddletwix I might come up with a better version of this question to run again (looking at activity within a few months vs a longer time horizon) in the future.


interesting market

@strutheo by my count you made ~1/6th of the long term markets in March, so you have great power here, use it wisely 🙏. as strutheo goes, so does manifold 🙏

For those curious, among the 15 most prolific market creators in March, there's a very wide range in the % that are long term: