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Seems wild that $170m sits at 93% and $215m sits is 19%. Surely tracking isn't that accurate?

That's probably right. Anecdotally, I'd agree that Manifold probably underrates the tails in box office projections—it's not very satisfying placing a bet that'll feel dumb & wrong most of the time (when the tracking is ~fine), and it's easy to see a bunch of forecasts all agree and think that implies certainty (when they're just all reading the same potentially flawed numbers). I don't have any real faith that the tail probabilities were any good for e.g. GxK, Inside Out 2, etc the big tracking beats (the stakes are pretty low so people get sloppy).

So I agree >$170M is being pushed too high (I've got some NO there at the extreme). E.g. "Inside Out 2" just beat its tracking by ~50%, that's an enormous range. But generally I'd say that huge tracking beats are more common than huge tracking misses (trackers have a good sense of pre-sales, which gives you a bit of a floor to work with, whereas they can't really account for the scenarios where a movie "takes off", there's some asymmetry there). So I do think it's fitting that >$215 is more likely than <$170.

(FWIW I'm mostly on hiatus from tracking box office stuff so I haven't actually been looking at what the trackers are saying about Deadpool 3, have only looked at a few final estimates, so no clue how confident they actually are in this case.)

Only 5 MCU movies have reached the rare threshold of $200M OW:

• Avengers: Endgame - $357,115,007

• Spider-Man: No Way Home - $260,138,569

• Avengers: Infinity War - $257,698,183

• The Avengers - $207,438,708

• Black Panther - $202,003,951

And only 3 R rated movies have even crossed $100M OW:

• Deadpool - $132,434,639

• Deadpool 2 - $125,507,153

• It - $123,403,419

("Deadpool & Wolverine" seems like a lock to smash that particular record)

Early tracking has been extremely strong: https://deadline.com/2024/06/deadpool-wolverine-box-office-projection-1235973545/

‘Deadpool & Wolverine’ Looking To Slash Box Office Records With $200M+ Opening

Strong contender to be the largest opening weekend of the year (although I would be very surprised if it surpassed Inside Out 2's total gross, domestic or WW). Wanted to make sure there was a market for this with proper liquidity.