"Hamnet" wins Best Picture?
18
1kṀ7008Jan 20
10%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves YES if "Hamnet" (2025) wins the Best Picture Oscar at the Academy Awards.
Context: Variety places "Hamnet" as its #1 contender as of August 24—there's no strong favorite this early in the season, so I am curious how low the probability of their pick is.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
"One Battle After Another" wins Best Picture?
84% chance
Which film will win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?
"Sinners" nominated for Best Picture?
98% chance
Which movie will win the Oscar for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?
'One Battle After Another' wins Best Picture Oscar?
81% chance