Does Covid-19 have hidden long-term negative health effects?
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2025
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Some people are worried that a Covid-19 infection could have consequences which are still not apparent now, like the effects of an HIV infection which start getting bad only after several years. This market resolves YES if such effects are found and published in peer-reviewed medical literature. Effects commonly subsumed into "Long Covid", i.e., immediate effects of the infection which persist even after the infection is over and the virus can no longer be detected, do NOT count here. Mar 28, 1:35pm: For the purpose of this market, I will view Covid-related ARDS and also its (possibly long-term) consequences as an immediate effect, which will not cause the market to resolve YES. However, if it turns out that Covid-19 somehow leads to an unusual form of ARDS which has more dangerous long-term health effects, then this might cause resolution to YES.
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According to you, what is subsumed in "Long Covid"?

For a very mild example, chronification or start of migraine episodes seems to happen (https://americanmigrainefoundation.org/resource-library/migraine-post-covid-headache/), but that does not necessarily mean these patients have Long Covid symptoms, such as chronic fatigue. That is just people developing (chronic) migraine for the first time after a Covid exposition. Should this be an "immediate effect of the infection"?

The thing that causes spike protein aggregation in the ovaries and lowers sperm counts is related to Covid, but not quite — https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35713410/
@Duncan: Correct. For the purpose of this market, I will view Covid-related ARDS and also its (possibly long-term) consequences as an immediate effect, which will not cause the market to resolve YES. However, if it turns out that Covid-19 somehow leads to an unusual form of ARDS which has more dangerous long-term health effects, then this might cause resolution to YES.
The sorts of lung damage secondary to ARDS that are known to be possible but are uncertain in extent would not cause this to resolve yes?