This is an experimental market concept that may or may not work out well. Please read before trading.

In the Round of 32 Argentina was selected. This market is created before Argentina is known to advance so that there is sufficient time for trading prior to the Round of 16 beginning. I will update each selection as the game finishes to the proper team. If Argentina does not win their R32 game then all answers on this market will NA. As a result, all prices on this market should be traded assuming that Argentina has already won.

Each round of the World Cup knockout stage will have a market created by me with all available options. At market close (immediately before round start), the option that has the highest probability will be the selection for that round. All other selections will resolve N/A. This will continue through each round until either the selected team loses, or there are no available teams for selection in the next round. Available teams in each round are any remaining teams that have not already been selected in previous rounds. At that point, all selected teams for each round will resolve to a percentage equal to the number of rounds where the selected team won divided by the total number of knockout stage rounds (five). See the below example for how this might work:

Example

In the Round of 32 market, let's say the highest probability at close is Germany. This makes Germany the selection in this round and all other options immediately N/A. Germany wins their Round of 32 matchup. This does not resolve the market yet.

In the Round of 16 market, the available teams for selection are all remaining teams except for Germany as they've already been picked. In this market, let's say the highest probability at close is England making them the selection in that round. All options other than England now immediately N/A. England wins their Round of 16 matchup. This does not resolve the market yet.

In the Quarterfinals market, the available teams for selection are all remaining teams except for Germany and England. In this market, let's say the highest probability at close is France making them the selection in that round. All options other than France now immediately N/A. Let's say France loses here. This will now resolve all 3 markets.

With the loss in the quarterfinals with the market selections, all 3 picks (Germany, England, France) would now resolve to the number of rounds won (two) divided by the total rounds in the knockout stage (five) causing all to resolve to 40%.

When trading on this market, this means that you should buy each option to a price that describes how that option will affect the probabilities of advancing through later rounds both based on their win probability in that round as well as what choices it may force you to make in later rounds.