Zardoru's calibration
Grade: B, Score: -1.86
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Zardoru bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
1%
3%
5%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
- Will the "Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030?" market reach 20% in 2023?YESṀ200
- Will Mira's main GPT-4 Sudoku market ever again drop below 50% and stay there for at least 24 hours?NOṀ100
- Will Mira's main GPT-4 Sudoku market ever again drop below 50% and stay there for at least 24 hours?NOṀ50
80%
90%
95%
97%