https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1848631587736322485
Resolves YES if the chance of Trump winning on https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024 is at least 69.0% for any given day through November 4, 2024. Resolves NO otherwise.
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@HillaryClinton for a day. I wouldn't want to resolve yes just because someone places a giant bet which is then very quickly bought back down.
@ZaneMiller An entire day is also prone to the same issue but in reverse. IMO it should be a few hours.
@zsig oh, sorry, I wasn't clear - I meant the daily average. If Trump spends almost all of the day above 69%, except for a brief blip where he drops down to 68%, it'll still count.
@ZaneMiller Okay, still a bit iffy. But I can work with "most of the day" to mean 69.0% or more for at least 16 or more hours. (I'm interpreting "almost all" to mean at least 2/3rds of the day).
Seeing Trump hover at 67% now, this could actually be close.