Will Cruz outperform Trump in Texas?
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π1Nov 6
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Resolves YES if Ted Cruz receives more of the vote than Trump in the 2024 election in Texas, and NO if Trump receives more of the vote.
"More of the vote" is measured in terms of what percentage of the Texan vote a candidate received, only counting votes for Cruz/Trump and the highest-performing candidate other than Cruz/Trump. For example, suppose the presidential election went 50% Trump / 45% Harris / 5% other, and the Senate election went 48% Cruz / 42% Allred / 10% other. Trump would have 50/(50+45) ~= 52.6% and Cruz would have 48/(48+42) ~= 53.3%, meaning this market would resolve YES.
This market will resolve based on the results reported by the Associated Press.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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