Will a tornado outbreak occur on either April 26, 27, 28 or 29 in the USA?

Question

This market will resolves YES if a tornado outbreak occurs on either April 26, 27, 28 or 29 in 2026.

To qualify as a tornado outbreak, there must be 6 or more tornadoes confirmed in any one of the given days.

This market will resolve based on SPC Filtered Storm Reports

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Manifold Markets · Answer

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 60% chance (3 traders, as of Apr 24, 2026).

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