ZZZ ZZZ's calibration
Grade: B, Score: -1.73
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when ZZZ ZZZ bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
3%
5%
10%
20%
- Will language models or similar natural language processing technologies, such as ChatGPT, be integrated into dialogue trees for NPCs in triple-A games by the end of 2023?NOṀ40
- If I make this somewhat emotional Facebook post, will I regret it a week later?NOṀ20
- Will someone link me a good rundown on how to build Google Search from scratch (M200 hedgsidy)NOṀ15
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
95%
97%
99%
- Please do not claim the manalink in the description of this market.YESṀ3,000
- Will the NO team mantain the longest undisrupted dominance?YESṀ1,500
- Will someone post a comment on this market in the next 24 hours with a c# function that takes a Manifold Markets api key and a mana link and redeems it?YESṀ1,362