Resolution Criteria

The market resolves YES when the Qatar Civil Aviation Authority and UAE civil aviation authorities announce the safe reopening of their respective airspaces and passenger flights resume operations. Resolution will be confirmed via official announcements from Qatar Airways (https://www.qatarairways.com/press-releases/), Emirates (https://www.emirates.com/), Etihad Airways (https://www.etihad.ae/), or official government aviation authority statements. The market resolves NO if airspace remains closed beyond a specified date, or YES on the date when commercial passenger flights demonstrably resume from major hubs (Hamad International Airport in Doha and Dubai or Abu Dhabi airport in the UAE).

Background

Following US and Israeli strikes on Iran and Iranian retaliation on February 28, 2026, at least eight states declared their airspace closed, including Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. Qatar Airways and UAE carriers Emirates and Etihad temporarily suspended all flights. Authorities have not announced a timeline for reopening airspace, with resumption depending on updated safety assessments and the lifting of aviation notices by regional regulators.

Considerations

Aviation security experts have indicated that airspace could remain shut for quite some time in the region. The reopening timeline is contingent on de-escalation of regional military tensions rather than technical factors, making prediction inherently uncertain.

This description was generated by AI.