Will the implied probability of this market be >50%, when averaged over the last 24 hours?
14
337
resolved Feb 22
Resolved
NO
I'm taking the average over the last day to try to prevent the strategy used in https://manifold.markets/JiaobeiMandos/i-have-been-entrusted-with-an-ai-in. Technical details: I will integrate the implied probability from 2/20 23:59:00 EST to 2/21 23:59:00 EST and divide the result by 24 hours. The market will resolve YES if it's above 50% and NO if it's below 50%. Feb 21, 12:35am: The final 24 hours started 35 minutes ago!
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bought Ṁ10 of NO
Looks like we are headed towards NO, but it's too early to judge.

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