Will I find a partner by the end of Jan 5?
17
340Ṁ1125
resolved Jan 3
Resolved
N/A

Sex friends / cuddle friends count as 0.5 of a partner.

Oct 11, 9:43am: Set resolution date to the end of Jan 5 instead of some random-looking time on Jan 5.

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It's Complicated. Austin agrees that any of NO, 50%, YES, and N/A would be reasonable:

I'm choosing to resolve the N/A because the resolution is ambiguous.

I would lose M$37 on any non-N/A resolution, so here is a manalink for M$40: https://manifold.markets/link/jU5iKx4O

One important lesson I learned from this market is that questions about the state of the world ("Will I have a partner?" / "How many partners will I have?") are less ambiguous than questions about the changes to that state ("Will I find a partner?" / "How many partners will I find?").

I'm planning to use the "have" wording for my future dating markets and I recommend others do the same.

Sex friends / cuddle friends count as 0.5 of a partner.

So in that case you would resolve 50%?

predictedYES

@Tassilo Correct

How's it going?

Created a second market to test @MichaelWheatley's dating doc advice.

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