Will anyone other than Trump or Desantis ever be front-runner for 2024 Republican nomination (judged by markets)?
15
73
Ṁ752Ṁ270
Nov 4
12%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This will resolve YES if someone other than Trump or Desantis is ever considered the single most likely candidate for Republican nominee according to prediction markets. I will accept either electionbettingodds.com 's combined forecast, or various Manifold markets as evidence for YES, so long as it seems to me to be a plausible market belief based on then-available evidence rather than an artifact of market manipulation or poor liquidity etc.
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