Will anyone other than Trump or Desantis ever be front-runner for 2024 Republican nomination (judged by markets)?
15
73
270
Nov 4
12%
chance

This will resolve YES if someone other than Trump or Desantis is ever considered the single most likely candidate for Republican nominee according to prediction markets. I will accept either electionbettingodds.com 's combined forecast, or various Manifold markets as evidence for YES, so long as it seems to me to be a plausible market belief based on then-available evidence rather than an artifact of market manipulation or poor liquidity etc.

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predicts NO

So, assuming an implicit date of "by the close of this market", this should resolve as NO, correct?

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