Will anyone other than Trump or Desantis ever be front-runner for 2024 Republican nomination (judged by markets)?
16
1kṀ3652
resolved Jul 26
Resolved
NO

This will resolve YES if someone other than Trump or Desantis is ever considered the single most likely candidate for Republican nominee according to prediction markets. I will accept either electionbettingodds.com 's combined forecast, or various Manifold markets as evidence for YES, so long as it seems to me to be a plausible market belief based on then-available evidence rather than an artifact of market manipulation or poor liquidity etc.

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bought Ṁ2,901 NO

@mods The market creator has not been active for three months and this market should resolve YES. No markets ever showed anyone other than Trump or Desantis as frontrunners.

You mean it should resolve NO?

Yes sorry, it should resolve NO. My brain wasn’t working.

predictedNO

So, assuming an implicit date of "by the close of this market", this should resolve as NO, correct?

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